Abstract: A method for optimizing a well production forecast includes inputting into a computer: initial production rate measurements and probability distributions to estimate production forecast model parameters. The computer generates an initial forecast of fluid production rates and total produced fluid volumes using a selected production forecast model. After a selected time, the initial forecast is compared with actual production rate and total produced fluid volume measurements to generate an error measurement. Parameters of the selected production forecast model are adjusted to minimize the error measurement, thereby generating an adjusted production forecast model. The parameter adjustment and error measurement are repeated for a plurality of iterations to generate a plurality of production forecast models each having a determined likelihood of an error measurement. The plurality of production forecast models are displayed with respect to likelihood of error.

Abstract: A method for optimizing a well production forecast includes a) inputting initial production rate measurements made at selected times, b) inputting probability distributions to estimate production forecast model parameters, c) generating an initial forecast of fluid production rates and total produced fluid volumes using a selected production forecast model, d) at a time after a last one of the selected times, comparing the initial forecast with actual production rate and total produced fluid volume measurements to generate an error measurement, e) adjusting parameters of the selected production forecast model to minimize the error measurement, thereby generating an adjusted production forecast model, f) repeating (d) and (e) for a plurality of iterations to generate a plurality of production forecast models each having a determined likelihood of an error measurement and displaying the plurality of production forecast models with respect to likelihood of error.

Abstract: A roof pipe entry hatch which includes side walls defining an opening, a cover hinged to one end of the side walls exteriorally of the opening, and a plurality of apertures presented by the side walls for receiving pipes from the exterior of the side walls into the opening, or handling pipes from the interior to the exterior of the building.