Abstract: Evidence decay in PGMs is achieved using virtual evidence nodes that create and send lambda messages that when combined with the other evidence force specified beliefs onto the decaying evidence nodes. The virtual evidence nodes compute a step along a path from the decaying node's current belief to a target belief to determine the specified belief. Belief propagation is executed to process the pi and lambda messages to update the current beliefs for all nodes. Observation evidence is removed from the model. For each decaying node, belief propagation is executed absent the evidence of that node to generate an updated target belief. Following an observation, the node's belief will decay in a smooth, continuous manner.

Abstract: A method of fusing sensor detection probabilities. The fusing of detection probabilities may allow a first force to detect an imminent threat from a second force, with enough time to counter the threat. The detection probabilities may include accuracy probability of one or more sensors and an available time probability of the one or more sensors. The detection probabilities allow a determination of accuracy of intelligence gathered by each of the sensors. Also, the detection probabilities allow a determination of a probable benefit of an additional platform, sensor, or processing method. The detection probabilities allow a system or mission analyst to quickly decompose a problem space and build a detailed analysis of a scenario under different conditions including technology and environmental factors.

Abstract: Embodiments of an apparatus and method for assessing non-kinetic weapon performance for negating missile threats are generally described herein. In some embodiments, vulnerabilities of missile threats and techniques for negating the threats are identified. A probability of negation associated with an effectiveness of each of the techniques against the vulnerabilities is calculated. The calculated probability of negation of each technique against each vulnerability are conditioned at a plurality of times associated with a plurality of asymmetric missile defense (AMD) layer elements to produce temporal level probabilities of negation. Each temporal level probabilities of negation are conditioned based on a probability of validation of deployment and a probability of verification of mitigation to produce a battle damage assessment probability of negation.

Abstract: A method for accurately determining whether a response tool will be effective for responding to a given enemy threat object. Embodiments described herein provide a method and system for responding to a threat object, for example, negating missile threats. Embodiments may include validating effectiveness of a response to the threat object. Other embodiments may include verifying the continued effectiveness of a response to the threat object. Further embodiments may include providing feedback to re-perform the method for responding to the threat object. The system may include a mathematical method, and associated algorithms, to assess, in an automated fashion, the performance of non-kinetic techniques with respect to negating the threat object.

Abstract: A method for accurately determining whether a response tool will be effective for responding to a given enemy threat object. Embodiments described herein provide a method and system for responding to a threat object, for example, negating missile threats. Embodiments may include validating effectiveness of a response to the threat object. Other embodiments may include verifying the continued effectiveness of a response to the threat object. Further embodiments may include providing feedback to re-perform the method for responding to the threat object. The system may include a mathematical method, and associated algorithms, to assess, in an automated fashion, the performance of non-kinetic techniques with respect to negating the threat object.

Abstract: A method of fusing sensor detection probabilities. The fusing of detection probabilities may allow a first force to detect an imminent threat from a second force, with enough time to counter the threat. The detection probabilities may include accuracy probability of one or more sensors and an available time probability of the one or more sensors. The detection probabilities allow a determination of accuracy of intelligence gathered by each of the sensors. Also, the detection probabilities allow a determination of a probable benefit of an additional platform, sensor, or processing method. The detection probabilities allow a system or mission analyst to quickly decompose a problem space and build a detailed analysis of a scenario under different conditions including technology and environmental factors.