Abstract: A computer system includes a server computer that handles transactions with user devices to create and manage events, create and manage user accounts and process wagers. Transactions regarding wagers in connection with events can be processed in real-time. The wagers are processed using a payoff function that rewards participation and accurate information, yet does not permit arbitrage or otherwise reward splitting a wager by participating under multiple identities. To compute a payoff, a first score is computed based on the probability estimate by a participant and the outcome. A second score is computed based on an aggregate of wagers of all other participants for each participant, where the first score for the participant is no more than the second score for at least one outcome. The payoff for the participant is then computed as a function of the first score and the second score.

Abstract: A computer system includes a server computer that handles transactions with user devices to create and manage events, create and manage user accounts and process wagers. Transactions regarding wagers in connection with events can be processed in real-time. The wagers are processed using a payoff function that rewards participation and accurate information, yet does not permit arbitrage or otherwise reward splitting a wager by participating under multiple identities. To compute a payoff, a first score is computed based on the probability estimate by a participant and the outcome. A second score is computed based on an aggregate of wagers of all other participants for each participant, where the first score for the participant is no more than the second score for at least one outcome. The payoff for the participant is then computed as a function of the first score and the second score.

Abstract: A computer system includes a server computer that handles transactions with user devices to create and manage events, create and manage user accounts and process wagers. Transactions regarding wagers in connection with events can be processed in real-time. The wagers are processed using a payoff function that rewards participation and accurate information, yet does not permit arbitrage or otherwise reward splitting a wager by participating under multiple identities. To compute a payoff, a first score is computed based on the probability estimate by a participant and the outcome. A second score is computed based on an aggregate of wagers of all other participants for each participant, where the first score for the participant is no more than the second score for at least one outcome. The payoff for the participant is then computed as a function of the first score and the second score.

Abstract: Various technologies relating to prevention of display of advertisements on pages rendered on client computing devices are described. A user participates in real-time auctions for advertisement positions on pages, where a bidding agent submits bids on behalf of the user. When the user wins an auction for an advertisement position, the advertisement position is populated with content approved by the user, thus effectively preventing another advertiser from presenting an advertisement in the advertisement position.

Abstract: A real-time prediction market is described. A plurality of predictor agents set forth respective predictions as to a likelihood that an advertisement will be selected when displayed together with certain publisher content. The advertisement is selected from amongst a plurality of advertisements based upon the plurality of predictions set forth by the plurality of predictor agents. Third parties corresponding to the predictor agents are compensated or penalized as a function of predictive accuracy of the predictor agents.

Abstract: Generally, a method and apparatus for making a prediction-based market including unconventional prediction options to market participants includes determining a prediction framework that includes a plurality of conditional scenarios. The method and apparatus includes calculating realization odds for each of the conditional scenarios using an approximation calculation technique and via an interface, receiving a plurality of predictions associated with selected conditional scenarios, each prediction having an associated value and building the prediction-based market using the predictor. The method and apparatus further includes updating realization odds for each of the conditional scenarios in the prediction framework using the approximation calculation technique and settling the predictions based at least on the updated realization odds.

Abstract: A method and apparatus are provided for group decision making. In one example, the method includes receiving bids from group members on choices, calculating a choice winner based on the bids, calculating a pot based on the bids, redistributing the pot based on the bids, and displaying results to the group members.

Abstract: The present invention provides a method of speculating on a future event or the value of an asset in a market. The speculating may take the form of trading, hedging or wagering. A plurality of speculations on the outcome of the future event is received. For each one of the speculations in the market, the status of the speculations at the time that the speculation was received in the market is recorded. After a time period for receiving speculations in the market has closed, the pari-mutuel payoff for each correct speculation is calculated using a computer. The pari-mutuel payoff depends at least in part on the status of speculations at the time that the speculation was received in the market.

Abstract: The present invention provides methods and systems for allowing transactions in instruments relating to term-based concepts in a networked computer system. Concepts may be defined as a set of terms, such as words or phrases, that relate to a theme. The terms are useable in computerized searches. The set of terms may be determined manually, using a computer algorithm, or both. Concepts are valued, such as by a measure of advertising value. Instruments include concept futures as well as bets. Concept-based instruments can be used, for example, as hedging tools, speculating tools, market forecasting tools, or data generating tools.

Abstract: The present invention provides methods and systems for allowing transactions in instruments relating to term-based concepts in a networked computer system. Concepts may be defined as a set of terms, such as words or phrases, that relate to a theme. The terms are useable in computerized searches. The set of terms may be determined manually, using a computer algorithm, or both. Concepts are valued, such as by a measure of advertising value. Instruments include concept futures as well as bets. Concept-based instruments can be used, for example, as hedging tools, speculating tools, market forecasting tools, or data generating tools.

Abstract: The present invention provides methods and systems for allowing transactions in instruments relating to term-based concepts in a networked computer system. Concepts may be defined as a set of terms, such as words or phrases, that relate to a theme. The terms are useable in computerized searches. The set of terms may be determined manually, using a computer algorithm, or both. Concepts are valued, such as by a measure of advertising value. Instruments include concept futures as well as bets. Concept-based instruments can be used, for example, as hedging tools, speculating tools, market forecasting tools, or data generating tools.