Abstract: A novel method of determining the probability that a planned drilling path will collide with an existing wellbore is disclosed. The method utilizes available uncertainty information to determine a probability for each of a plurality of segments of the planned drilling path that a projection of the segment onto a plane will intersect a projection of a corresponding segment of the existing wellbore onto the plane. The method of this invention then determines the net probability for each segment of the planned drilling path that the segment will intersect the corresponding segment of the existing wellbore by taking into account the effect of constraints imposed on each segment, by adjacent segments. The probability that the planned drilling path will intersect the existing wellbore is determined by adding together all of the net probabilities.