Abstract: There are many techniques for determining the route of a mobile terminal. Among these techniques, some can be used to estimate this route along roads in a transport network using signalling data. Regarding the cross-referencing of this information with transport network graphs to determine this route, it is known to use hidden Markov models (HMMs). When the position of the mobile terminal is obtained using data collected from the radio communication network to which the mobile terminal is attached, the routes taken by a mobile terminal determined using a HMM on the basis of this information are uncertain. The present method and device helps to overcome this limitation by using a likelihood map of support by a base station to calculate a probability of connection of the mobile terminal to a given base station.