Abstract: Systems, products, and methods are disclosed for improving the accuracy of predictions. Possible values of an output variable can be generated based on past values and possible values of input variables and a model. Multiple scenarios can be run, each of which may vary in many factors, such as the model used and the input variables used. Results from multiple scenarios can be presented to a user. Prediction accuracy can be improved through selection of one or more desirable scenarios.

Abstract: Systems and methods are provided for evaluating performance of forecasting models. A plurality of forecasting models may be generated using a set of in-sample data. Two or more forecasting models from the plurality of forecasting models may be selected for use in generating a combined forecast. An ex-ante combined forecast may be generated for an out-of-sample period using the selected two or more forecasting models. The ex-ante combined forecast may then be compared with a set of actual out-of-sample data to evaluate performance of the combined forecast.

Abstract: Systems and methods are provided for analyzing unstructured time stamped data. A first series of user display screens are provided, where the first series of user display screens are configured to be displayed in a step-wise manner so that a user can specify a first approach through a series of predetermined steps on how the unstructured data is to be structured. A second series of user display screens are provided, where the second series of user display screens are configured to be displayed in a step-wise manner so that the user can specify a second approach through the series of predetermined steps on how the unstructured data is to be structured. Tracking data enables alternate viewing of the first and second approach to facilitate a decision whether to format the unstructured time stamped data according to the first approach or the second approach.

Abstract: Systems and methods are provided for evaluating performance of forecasting models. A plurality of forecasting models may be generated using a set of in-sample data. Two or more forecasting models from the plurality of forecasting models may be selected for use in generating a combined forecast. An ex-ante combined forecast may be generated for an out-of-sample period using the selected two or more forecasting models. The ex-ante combined forecast may then be compared with a set of actual out-of-sample data to evaluate performance of the combined forecast.

Abstract: Systems and methods are provided for analyzing unstructured time stamped data. A first series of user display screens are provided, where the first series of user display screens are configured to be displayed in a step-wise manner so that a user can specify a first approach through a series of predetermined steps on how the unstructured data is to be structured. A second series of user display screens are provided, where the second series of user display screens are configured to be displayed in a step-wise manner so that the user can specify a second approach through the series of predetermined steps on how the unstructured data is to be structured. Tracking data enables alternate viewing of the first and second approach to facilitate a decision whether to format the unstructured time stamped data according to the first approach or the second approach.

Abstract: Computer-implemented systems and methods are provided for implementing a scenario analysis manager that performs multiple scenarios based upon time series data that is representative of transactional data are provided. A system and method provides candidate predictive models for a first scenario for selection where the set of candidate predictive models includes an identification of variables associated with a model. Model selection data is received from a scenario analysis manager where a selected model is configured to predict a future value of a first variable based on values of a second variable. Time series data is received representative of past transaction activity of the first variable and the second variable, and data representative of a future value of the second variable is also received. The future value of the first variable is determined using the selected model, the time-series data and the future value of the second variable.

Abstract: Systems and methods are provided for evaluating a physical process with respect to one or more attributes of the physical process by combining forecasts for the one or more physical process attributes, where data for evaluating the physical process is generated over time. A forecast model selection graph is accessed, the forecast model selection graph comprising a hierarchy of nodes arranged in parent-child relationships. A plurality of model forecast nodes are resolved, where resolving a model forecast node includes generating a node forecast for the one or more physical process attributes. A combination node is processed, where a combination node transforms a plurality of node forecasts at child nodes of the combination node into a combined forecast. A selection node is processed, where a selection node chooses a node forecast from among child nodes of the selection node based on a selection criteria.

Abstract: Systems and methods are provided for evaluating performance of forecasting models. A plurality of forecasting models may be generated using a set of in-sample data. Two or more forecasting models from the plurality of forecasting models may be selected for use in generating a combined forecast. An ex-ante combined forecast may be generated for an out-of-sample period using the selected two or more forecasting models. The ex-ante combined forecast may then be compared with a set of actual out-of-sample data to evaluate performance of the combined forecast.

Abstract: Computer-implemented systems and methods are provided for implementing a scenario analysis manager that performs multiple scenarios based upon time series data that is representative of transactional data are provided. A system and method provides candidate predictive models for a first scenario for selection where the set of candidate predictive models includes an identification of variables associated with a model. Model selection data is received from a scenario analysis manager where a selected model is configured to predict a future value of a first variable based on values of a second variable. Time series data is received representative of past transaction activity of the first variable and the second variable, and data representative of a future value of the second variable is also received. The future value of the first variable is determined using the selected model, the time-series data and the future value of the second variable.