Abstract: The target density prediction method by area comprises of 4 main steps: Step 1: preparing training dataset; Step 2: analyzing time series characteristics of training dataset; Step 3: training the autoregressive integrated moving average model; Step 4: predicting the target density over a defined time period in the future. The chosen method technically analyzes the time series characteristics of historical dataset by monitoring areas, and determines the cycle property, parameters and the autoregressive integrated moving average model to predict the number of targets that have high probability appearing in monitoring area at some point in the future.