Abstract: Techniques are described for modeling variations in correlation to facilitate analytic operations. In one or more embodiments, at least one computing device receives first metric data that tracks a first metric for a first target resource and second metric data that tracks a second metric for a second target resource. In response to receiving the first metric data and the second metric data, the at least one computing device generates a time-series of correlation values that tracks correlation between the first metric and the second metric over time. Based at least in part on the time-series of correlation data, an expected correlation is determined and compared to an observed correlation. If the observed correlation falls outside of a threshold range or otherwise does not satisfy the expected correlation, then an alert and/or other output may be generated.

Abstract: Techniques are described for generating period profiles. According to an embodiment, a set of time series data is received, where the set of time series data includes data spanning a plurality of time windows having a seasonal period. Based at least in part on the set of time-series data, a first set of sub-periods of the seasonal period is associated with a particular class of seasonal pattern. A profile for a seasonal period that identifies which sub-periods of the seasonal period are associated with the particular class of seasonal pattern is generated and stored, in volatile or non-volatile storage. Based on the profile, a visualization is generated for at least one sub-period of the first set of sub-periods of the seasonal period that indicates that the at least one sub-period is part of the particular class of seasonal pattern.

Abstract: Techniques are described for applying what-f analytics to simulate performance of computing resources in cloud and other computing environments. In one or more embodiments, a plurality of time-series datasets are received including time-series datasets representing a plurality of demands on a resource and datasets representing performance metrics for a resource. Based on the datasets at least one demand propagation model and at least one resource prediction model are trained. Responsive to receiving an adjustment to a first set of one or more values associated with a first demand: (a) a second adjustment is generated for a second set of one or more values associated with a second demand; and (b) a third adjustment is generated for a third set of one or more values that is associated with the resource performance metric.

Abstract: Techniques are described for generating period profiles. According to an embodiment, a set of time series data is received, where the set of time series data includes data spanning a plurality of time windows having a seasonal period. Based at least in part on the set of time-series data, a first set of sub-periods of the seasonal period is associated with a particular class of seasonal pattern. A profile for a seasonal period that identifies which sub-periods of the seasonal period are associated with the particular class of seasonal pattern is generated and stored, in volatile or non-volatile storage. Based on the profile, a visualization is generated for at least one sub-period of the first set of sub-periods of the seasonal period that indicates that the at least one sub-period is part of the particular class of seasonal pattern.

Abstract: Techniques are described for performing cluster analysis on a set of data points using tri-point arbitration. In one embodiment, a first cluster that includes a set of data points is generated within volatile and/or non-volatile storage of a computing device. A set of tri-point arbitration similarity values are computed where each similarity value in the set of similarity values corresponds to a respective data point pair and is computed based, at least in part, on a distance between the respective data point pair and a set of one or more arbiter data points. The first cluster is partitioned within volatile and/or non-volatile storage of the computing device into a set of two or more clusters. A determination is made, based at least in part on the set of similarity values in the tri-arbitration similarity matrix, whether to continue partitioning the set of data points.

Abstract: Techniques are described for generating predictive alerts. In one or more embodiments, a seasonal model is generated, the seasonal model representing one or more seasonal patterns within a first set of time-series data, the first set of time-series data comprising data points from a first range of time. A trend-based model is also generated to represent trending patterns within a second set of time-series data comprising data points from a second range of time that is different than the first range of time. A set of forecasted values is generated based on the seasonal model and the trend-based model. Responsive to determining that a set of alerting thresholds has been satisfied based on the set of forecasted values, an alert is generated.

Abstract: Techniques are described for optimizing scalability of analytics that use time-series models. In one or more embodiments, a stored time-series model includes a plurality of data points representing seasonal behavior in a training set of time-series data for at least one season. A target time for evaluating the time-series model is then determined, and the target time or one or more times relative to the target time are mapped to a subset of the plurality of data points. Based on the mapping, a trimmed version of the time-series model is generated by loading the subset of the plurality of data points into a cache, the subset of data points representing seasonal behavior in the training set of time-series data for a portion of the at least one season. A target set of time-series data may be evaluated suing the trimmed version of the time-series in the cache.

Abstract: Systems and methods for performing unsupervised baselining and anomaly detection using time-series data are described. In one or more embodiments, a baselining and anomaly detection system receives a set of time-series data. Based on the set of time-series, the system generates a first interval that represents a first distribution of sample values associated with the first seasonal pattern and a second interval that represents a second distribution of sample values associated with the second seasonal pattern. The system then monitors a time-series signals using the first interval during a first time period and the second interval during a second time period. In response to detecting an anomaly in the first seasonal pattern or the second seasonal pattern, the system generates an alert.

Abstract: Techniques are described for modeling variations in correlation to facilitate analytic operations. In one or more embodiments, at least one computing device receives first metric data that tracks a first metric for a first target resource and second metric data that tracks a second metric for a second target resource. In response to receiving the first metric data and the second metric data, the at least one computing device generates a time-series of correlation values that tracks correlation between the first metric and the second metric over time. Based at least in part on the time-series of correlation data, an expected correlation is determined and compared to an observed correlation. If the observed correlation falls outside of a threshold range or otherwise does not satisfy the expected correlation, then an alert and/or other output may be generated.

Abstract: Techniques are described for performing cluster analysis on a set of data points using tri-point arbitration. In one embodiment, a first cluster that includes a set of data points is generated within volatile and/or non-volatile storage of a computing device. A set of tri-point arbitration similarity values are computed where each similarity value in the set of similarity values corresponds to a respective data point pair and is computed based, at least in part, on a distance between the respective data point pair and a set of one or more arbiter data points. The first cluster is partitioned within volatile and/or non-volatile storage of the computing device into a set of two or more clusters. A determination is made, based at least in part on the set of similarity values in the tri-arbitration similarity matrix, whether to continue partitioning the set of data points.

Abstract: Techniques are described for characterizing and summarizing seasonal patterns detected within a time series. According to an embodiment, a set of time series data is analyzed to identify a plurality of instances of a season, where each instance corresponds to a respective sub-period within the season. A first set of instances from the plurality of instances are associated with a particular class of seasonal pattern. After classifying the first set of instances, a second set of instances may remain unclassified or otherwise may not be associated with the particular class of seasonal pattern. Based on the first and second set of instances, a summary may be generated that identifies one or more stretches of time that are associated with the particular class of seasonal pattern. The one or more stretches of time may span at least one sub-period corresponding to at least one instance in the second set of instances.

Abstract: Techniques are described for generating seasonal forecasts. According to an embodiment, a set of time-series data is associated with one or more classes, which may include a first class that represent a dense pattern that repeats over multiple instances of a season in the set of time-series data and a second class that represent another pattern that repeats over multiple instances of the season in the set of time-series data. A particular class of data is associated with at least two sub-classes of data, where a first sub-class represents high data points from the first class, and a second sub-class represents another set of data points from the first class. A trend rate is determined for a particular sub-class. Based at least in part on the trend rate, a forecast is generated.

Abstract: Techniques are described for generating period profiles. According to an embodiment, a set of time series data is received, where the set of time series data includes data spanning a plurality of time windows having a seasonal period. Based at least in part on the set of time-series data, a first set of sub-periods of the seasonal period is associated with a particular class of seasonal pattern. A profile for a seasonal period that identifies which sub-periods of the seasonal period are associated with the particular class of seasonal pattern is generated and stored, in volatile or non-volatile storage. Based on the profile, a visualization is generated for at least one sub-period of the first set of sub-periods of the seasonal period that indicates that the at least one sub-period is part of the particular class of seasonal pattern.

Abstract: Techniques are described for automatically detecting and accommodating state changes in a computer-generated forecast. In one or more embodiments, a representation of a time-series signal is generated within volatile and/or non-volatile storage of a computing device. The representation may be generated in such a way as to approximate the behavior of the time-series signal across one or more seasonal periods. Once generated, a set of one or more state changes within the representation of the time-series signal is identified. Based at least in part on at least one state change in the set of one or more state changes, a subset of values from the sequence of values is selected to train a model. An analytical output is then generated, within volatile and/or non-volatile storage of the computing device, using the trained model.

Abstract: Systems and methods for trending patterns within a set of time-series data are described. In one or more embodiments, a set of one or more groups of data points that are associated with a particular seasonal pattern are generated within volatile and/or non-volatile storage. A set of pairwise slopes is determined for data point pairs within the set of one or more groups of data points. Based, at least in part on the plurality of pairwise slopes, a representative trend rate for the particular seasonal pattern is determined. A set of forecasted values is then generated within volatile or non-volatile storage based, at least in part, on the representative trend rate for the particular seasonal pattern.

Abstract: Techniques are described for classifying seasonal patterns in a time series. In an embodiment, a set of time series data is decomposed to generate a noise signal and a dense signal. Based on the noise signal, a first classification is generated for a plurality of seasonal instances within the set of time series data, where each respective instance of the plurality of instances corresponds to a respective sub-period within the season and the first classification associates a first set of one or more instances from the plurality of instances with a particular class of seasonal pattern. Based on the dense signal, a second classification is generated that associates a second set of one or more instances with the particular class. Based on the first classification and the second classification, a third classification is generated, where the third classification associates a third set of one or more instances with the particular class.

Abstract: Techniques are described for classifying seasonal patterns in a time series. In an embodiment, a set of time series data is decomposed to generate a noise signal and a dense signal, where the noise signal includes a plurality of sparse features from the set of time series data and the dense signal includes a plurality of dense features from the set of time series data. A set of one or more sparse features from the noise signal is selected for retention. After selecting the sparse features, a modified set of time series data is generated by combining the set of one or more sparse features with a set of one or more dense features from the plurality of dense features. At least one seasonal pattern is identified from the modified set of time series data. A summary for the seasonal pattern may then be generated and stored.

Abstract: A vehicle control system includes a transceiver and a control unit. The transceiver is configured to communicate with plural vehicles, to receive operational parameter values from the plural vehicles. The operational parameter values are generated by sensors on board the vehicles and relate to operation of the vehicles during movement of the vehicles along one or more routes. The control unit is configured to generate respective vehicle operational assessments of the vehicles based on the received operational parameter values. The vehicle operational assessments are representative of respective states of operational readiness of the vehicles. The control unit is further configured to generate control signals, relating to control of the vehicles for operation along the one or more designated routes, based on the operational assessments. The control signals are configured to control at least one device, either on board or off board the vehicles.

Abstract: Systems and methods for scoring, ranking, and allocating mobile and/or fixed client assets. Embodiments of the present invention relate to the characterization or assessment of client assets with respect to the health of the client assets, the ranking of the client assets according to the characterization or assessment, and the allocating of the client assets to tasks or missions based on the ranking and/or mission parameters.

Abstract: A system for assessing the health of a mechanism includes a processor for receiving observation data from at least one sensor, the processor including: a detector receptive to the observation data and capable of identifying whether the mechanism is operating in a normal or degraded mode; a diagnoser to identify a type of fault from at least one symptom pattern; and a prognoser capable of calculating a remaining useful life (RUL) of the mechanism, wherein the prognoser includes a population prognoser for calculating the RUL based on a duration of use of the mechanism, a cause prognoser for calculating the RUL based on causal data, and an effect prognoser for calculating the RUL based on effect data generated from the fault. A method and computer program product for assessing the health of a downhole tool is also disclosed.