Abstract: An online system predicts a number of interruption events within a time period and identifies anomalous numbers of interruption events using an interruption prediction model. The online concierge system maintains application state data that describes a state of an application workflow for a client application. The online concierge system identifies interruption events that represent interruptions to the application workflow and logs interruption events in an interruption log, wherein each entry of the interruption log describes an interruption event and its corresponding state. The online concierge system predicts a number of interruption events that will occur within a time period based on an interruption prediction model. The online concierge system computes an actual number of interruption events that occurred during the time period and computes a difference between the actual number and the predicted number.

Abstract: An online concierge system generates the value for an impression by predicting future behavior by users beyond a current conversion. The predicted future behavior attributes incremental value of subsequent conversions by the user. The online concierge system gathers feature information about the user. Based on experimental data, the online concierge system generates a baseline curve describing expected user behavior for a category of users. Based on feature information of the user, the online concierge system applies a computer model to generate modifiers for the baseline curve to customize the baseline curve for the user. The modified curve is used to predict future actions by the user, and consequently a long-term incremental conversion value for the impression.

Abstract: An online system predicts a number of interruption events within a time period and identifies anomalous numbers of interruption events using an interruption prediction model. The online concierge system maintains application state data that describes a state of an application workflow for a client application. The online concierge system identifies interruption events that represent interruptions to the application workflow and logs interruption events in an interruption log, wherein each entry of the interruption log describes an interruption event and its corresponding state. The online concierge system predicts a number of interruption events that will occur within a time period based on an interruption prediction model. The online concierge system computes an actual number of interruption events that occurred during the time period and computes a difference between the actual number and the predicted number.