Abstract: A contingency forecasting system for computer generating a contingency forecast simulation of a monitored system to receive a plurality of monitored event records each describing a state of the monitored system during a monitored event of the monitored system having a monitored attribute for each of a plurality of variables. An extraction module extracts one or more of the plurality of monitored event records as exceptions if the monitored values satisfy respective regularity condition. A modification module is configured to generate one or more modified event records. A selection module is configured to select a subset of contingency event records from a set of event records having the extracted exceptional event records and the generated modified event records. A forecast simulation module is configured to apply one or more forecasting techniques to the selected subset of contingency event records to generate contingency forecast simulation parameters.