Abstract: This invention provides a method for indicating a high or low risk of developing pathology at specific sites along epithelial tissues, according to a model of carcinogenesis and measurements of activated enterocytes. The method determines the presence and the intensity of a “promoting environment,” a region of intestinal epithelial cells which are biochemically programmed as activated enterocytes to develop pathology such as neoplasia or such as cancer in response to certain signals. The model predicts that neoplasia can develop only in such an environment when the promoting influence is sufficiently intense. In which case to provide the ability to identify pathologic tissues If cancer is determined to be present, this method enables one to assess the stage of cancer, which can be used to monitor the effectiveness of therapeutic regimes during the course of treatment for a patient.