Abstract: There is provided a simulation apparatus that predicts an effect of sending out a direct mail for a product of a specific brand, including a planned budget acceptance unit 102 that accepts a planned budget of the campaign, a customer master 108 containing properties and turn-away probability of each customer, a condition acceptance unit 112 that accepts a condition for sending the direct mail, a number of DM delivery calculation unit 114 that extracts the customers to whom the condition applies out of the customer master 108 and calculates the number of customers to whom the direct mail may be sent, a plan acceptance unit 116 that accepts a planned number of customers to whom the direct mail should be sent and the expected conversion rate, a unit value table 118 that stores therein a unit value of a brand newly chosen because of the DM and predetermined with respect to each of the properties of the brand of the product, an expected value calculation unit 120 that calculates the number of conversion-expected c