Abstract: An estimation system generates, from a value of a time series of an estimation object in a past period, a plurality of patterns of a transition of a value of the estimation object. Based on the plurality of generated patterns and a value of a time series of a factor in the past period, the estimation system specifies a dependency relationship between a transition pattern and a value of the factor and a transition pattern at a past (or future) time point and identifies a model in accordance with the specified dependency relationship. By inputting a value of a time series of the factor in a future period to the estimation model, the estimation system specifies a time series of a value in the future period of the estimation object using at least one transition pattern.

Abstract: A system generates a first tree structure representing a relation of a plurality of measurement data sets, and generates goodness-of-fit data based on at least a part of attribute data regarding one or more branch portions included in the first tree structure. The attribute data includes one or more attribute values at one or more points in time regarding each of one or more attribute items. The goodness-of-fit data includes goodness-of-fit for each attribute item regarding each branch portion. With regard to each attribute item for each branch portion, goodness-of-fit is a value calculated based on a parent node and two or more child nodes belonging to the relevant branch portion, and one or more attribute values corresponding to the relevant attribute item, and represents a degree that the relevant attribute item will fit as a base of a branch condition.

Abstract: A system refers to actual weather data made publicly available by a first institution, and creates a model that uses a value of a weather element for each section as an input and uses a value of a renewable energy power generation amount of the area as an output based on the actual value of the weather element calculated for each section, and the actual value of the renewable energy power generation amount of the area. The system refers to weather prediction data made publicly available by the second institution, and calculates an actual value of the weather element regarding each of the plurality of sections including the area based on a prediction value of the weather element for each segment in the corresponding section, and calculates a prediction value of the renewable energy power generation amount based on the prediction value of the weather element for each section.

Abstract: Provided is a data prediction system for predicting a future prediction value. The data prediction system has a data management device which manages data and a prediction operation device which models tendency of an error amount of a prediction operation result calculated on the basis of a correlation with a major explanatory variable and corrects a future prediction value. The data management device includes a storage unit which stores prediction target past measurement data observed with a time transition and explanatory factor data explaining the prediction target past measurement data.

Abstract: A system performs factor selection processing, which includes performing a factor selection operation for selecting one or two or more factors from one or a plurality of factors; factor filtering processing which includes: determining, about each of the one or the plurality of factors before the factor selection processing is performed, whether a factor value for prediction input to a prediction model is within a range of a plurality of factor values for specimen used to identify the prediction model; and excluding a factor, a result of the determination of which is false, and outputting a factor not excluded; and prediction processing which includes calculating the prediction value of the prediction target by inputting, to the prediction model, a factor value for prediction about each of one or more factors including the factor selected in the factor selection processing and not including the factor excluded in the factor filtering processing.

Abstract: A data processing system calculates prediction or planning data of an object from observation data of a calculation object of the prediction or planning data and observation data of various factors, including a first processing section which identifies a model used for calculation of the prediction or planning data of each of the factors, a second processing section which calculates data which indices the kind of a time transition of the factor from the observation data of the factor and classifies the observation data of the factor by using the calculated data which indicates the kind of the time transition, and a third processing section which changes the model for calculation of the prediction or planning data on the basis of the classified observation data and the prediction data of the factor in a prediction or planning data calculation object time period and calculates the prediction or planning data.

Abstract: Provided is a prediction system for calculating a prediction value related to a prediction target to which prediction in an arbitrary period is adapted. The prediction system includes a storage device which records a plurality of data used to calculate the prediction value and a control device which includes a predetermined operation model and applies the plurality of data to the operation model to calculate the prediction value. The control device changes the operation model, on the basis of information of respective temporal attributes of the plurality of data.

Abstract: An object of the invention is to provide a data processing system that can appropriately determine data to be used for identification of a prediction model. The data processing system that performs prediction using a prediction model, includes: a selection unit that selects data to be used for identification of a prediction model from a storage unit that stores data; and a processing unit that identifies the prediction model by using the data selected by the selection unit. The selection unit selects, from the storage unit, predetermined first data, and second data of a type and/or condition different from the first data, based on a branch condition of structure data of a structural prediction model.

Abstract: An energy operation system, apparatus, and method capable of stably supplying energy and providing adjustment control based on prediction precision and planning precision for energy supply and demand. An energy operation apparatus includes a demand predictor, planner, evaluator, and solution quality controller. The demand predictor predicts demand and/or a power generation amount of future energy in a management area. The planner prepares a future energy supply plan in the management area based on a prediction. The evaluator evaluates supply and/or demand conditions including at least one of future weather in the management area, energy demand in the management area, a demand density and/or a generation density of future energy in the management area. The solution quality controller controls the quality of at least one of a prediction solution of the demand predictor and the energy supply plan of the planner based on an evaluation result from the evaluator.

Abstract: A data processing system calculates prediction or planning data of an object from observation data of a calculation object of the prediction or planning data and observation data of various factors, including a first processing section which identifies a model used for calculation of the prediction or planning data of each of the factors, a second processing section which calculates data which indices the kind of a time transition of the factor from the observation data of the factor and classifies the observation data of the factor by using the calculated data which indicates the kind of the time transition, and a third processing section which changes the model for calculation of the prediction or planning data on the basis of the classified observation data and the prediction data of the factor in a prediction or planning data calculation object time period and calculates the prediction or planning data.

Abstract: An energy operation system, apparatus, and method capable of stably supplying energy and providing adjustment control based on prediction precision and planning precision for energy supply and demand. An energy operation apparatus includes a demand predictor, planner, evaluator, and solution quality controller. The demand predictor predicts demand and/or a power generation amount of future energy in a management area. The planner prepares a future energy supply plan in the management area based on a prediction. The evaluator evaluates supply and/or demand conditions including at least one of future weather in the management area, energy demand in the management area, a demand density and/or a generation density of future energy in the management area. The solution quality controller controls the quality of at least one of a prediction solution of the demand predictor and the energy supply plan of the planner based on an evaluation result from the evaluator.

Abstract: According to one embodiment, a data prediction system includes: a factor separating unit configured to separate a factor constituting a transition of a value of a prediction target from the value; a factor predicting unit configured to calculate factor prediction data that is prediction data of each factor based on the factor separated by the factor separating unit and a parameter related to the prediction target; and a prediction calculating unit configured to calculate prediction data of the prediction target based on the factor prediction data calculated by the factor predicting unit.

Abstract: Provided is a prediction system for calculating a prediction value related to a prediction target to which prediction in an arbitrary period is adapted. The prediction system includes a storage device which records a plurality of data used to calculate the prediction value and a control device which includes a predetermined operation model and applies the plurality of data to the operation model to calculate the prediction value. The control device changes the operation model, on the basis of information of respective temporal attributes of the plurality of data.

Abstract: According to one embodiment, a power plan supporting apparatus provided for planning a power plan based on time series data regarding the power plan includes a time series classification unit that classifies the time series data into a group of periods in which input conditions are same or similar to each other in an optimization of the power plan, a representative data determination unit that determines representative data for each group classified by the time series classification unit, and a period evaluation value estimation unit that calculates an evaluation value of all the periods by integrating the evaluation value for each representative data determined by the representative data determination unit.

Abstract: Provided is a data prediction system for predicting a future prediction value. The data prediction system has a data management device which manages data and a prediction operation device which models tendency of an error amount of a prediction operation result calculated on the basis of a correlation with a major explanatory variable and corrects a future prediction value. The data management device includes a storage unit which stores prediction target past measurement data observed with a time transition and explanatory factor data explaining the prediction target past measurement data.

Abstract: The present invention is provided with: a player action prediction unit that predicts the action of a player and calculates a sales order information prediction value; a market physical restraint prediction unit that predicts the state of a power transfer path, which includes grid-connection line available capacity indicating excess transferred power between areas, and calculates a prediction value for the state of the power transport path; and a market prediction unit that predicts a market price on the basis of the sales order information prediction value and the prediction value for the power transfer path state.

Abstract: A trading planning apparatus includes an order quantity planning section determining trading quantities with a plurality of trade connections from a trading cumulative quantity and estimated data about future quantities related to demand and the trade connections, a split-time-based split order planning section generating trading and ordering data containing data about an order price or an order quantity related to trading and ordering in each of planned trading periods that are periods into which a trading period, during which trading can be conducted, is subdivided, and a future quantity estimation section estimating estimated quantities of data related to errors in the future quantities estimated from actual record values, the order quantity planning section increasing or reducing the trading quantity of any of the trade connections when a difference between a sum of the trading quantities of all of the trade connections and a future quantity demanded is equal to or greater than a predetermined value.

Abstract: A data prediction system for calculating a predicted value includes a storage device for storing a measured value of a prediction target, a controller for calculating estimation data of the prediction target on the basis of the measured value, and a combining process module for combining predicted values in a future time period, each calculated by using a different calculation model, and outputting a combined value as a new predicted value.

Abstract: To improve a prediction accuracy of future demand. A demand prediction system includes a storage device and a processor which is connected to the storage device. The processor is configured to associate time-sequential load data of a resource demand of a plurality of consumers in a consumer set to a plurality of groups, and the storage device is configured to acquire demand pattern data indicating a shape representing the load data in each group and the number of consumers belonging to each group, and calculate shape data indicating a shape of the time-sequential load data of the demand of the consumer set in a predetermined prediction target period on the basis of a record value of the demand pattern data of each group and a record value of the number of consumers of each group.

Abstract: To solve such a problem, demand categories are prepared. ‘Demand categories’ are units of classification for demand. Where the demand included in the ‘demand categories’ is concerned, any attribute such as the contract type, industry type, demand location, and demand generation period constitute the same demand. For example, a management apparatus comprises a sales income calculation unit which calculates sales income derived from supplying demand by using a time interval-differentiated fee unit price for each demand category and a power usage value, an earnings prediction spread calculation unit which compares earnings for each of a plurality of future volume estimation time series relating to power usage volumes of predetermined periods of the demand categories, and a fee unit price search unit which searches for a fee unit price satisfying a limiting condition based on a comparison result.