Abstract: Mechanisms are provided to hypothetical scenario evaluations with regard to infectious disease dynamics based on similar regions. A user definition of a hypothetical scenario for a target region is received which specifies scenario features affecting an infectious disease spread amongst a population within the target region. Other predefined regions, in the set of predefined regions, having similar region characteristics to the target region are identified and attributes of the other predefined regions corresponding to the scenario features are identified. Modified model parameter(s) for an infectious disease computer model are derived based on the identified attributes. An instance of the infectious disease computer model is configured with the modified model parameter(s) and the instance is executed on case report data for the target region to generate a prediction for an infectious disease spread in the target region according to the hypothetical scenario, which is then output.

Abstract: Mechanisms are provided to adapt computer modeling of an infectious disease based on noisy data and perform hyperlocal prediction of infectious disease dynamics and risks. Case report data is received and a trained background noise computer model is applied to generate first prediction results predicting infectious disease dynamics. The trained background noise computer model is trained to model infectious disease dynamics assuming that there is no community spread of the infectious disease. A first error measure of the first prediction results is determined and, in response to the first error measure being lower than a threshold value, the first prediction results are selected to output as predicted infectious disease dynamics. In response to the first error measure being equal/greater than the threshold value, second prediction results are selected. The second prediction results are generated by applying a trained infectious disease computer model to the received case report data.

Abstract: Mechanisms are provided to hypothetical scenario evaluations with regard to infectious disease dynamics based on similar regions. A user definition of a hypothetical scenario for a target region is received which specifies scenario features affecting an infectious disease spread amongst a population within the target region. Other predefined regions, in the set of predefined regions, having similar region characteristics to the target region are identified and attributes of the other predefined regions corresponding to the scenario features are identified. Modified model parameter(s) for an infectious disease computer model are derived based on the identified attributes. An instance of the infectious disease computer model is configured with the modified model parameter(s) and the instance is executed on case report data for the target region to generate a prediction for an infectious disease spread in the target region according to the hypothetical scenario, which is then output.

Abstract: Mechanisms are provided for hyperlocal prediction of epidemic dynamics and risks. Regional machine learning training is performed on an infectious disease computer model at least by: receiving first case report data; pre-processing the first case report data to remove noise at least by applying a smoothening algorithm to form first smoothed data; aggregating the first smoothed data into regional data, wherein aggregating the first smoothed data comprises correlating the first smoothed data to a target region corresponding to a population; and training the model using the regional data. The trained model is executed on new second case report data for the target region and automatic monitoring of performance of the model is performed according to a prediction accuracy of the model. In response to the prediction accuracy being below a predetermined threshold, automatic retraining is initiated.

Abstract: Mechanisms are provided to perform automatic case intervention detection in infectious disease case reports and for configuring an infectious disease computer model based on the automatic intervention detection. Case report data is received and a time ordered curve of the case report data is generated. One or more inflection points in the time ordered curve are identified. The one or more inflection points in the time ordered curve are correlated with one or more intervention entries specified in time stamped infectious disease intervention data, the one or more intervention entries specifying interventions implemented by authorities to control spread of the infectious disease. One or more model parameters of an infectious disease computer model are configured based on results of correlating the one or more inflection points with the one or more intervention entries.

Abstract: Mechanisms are provided for performing automated monitoring and retraining of infectious disease computer models. A trained infectious disease computer model is executed on case report data for a target region to generate prediction results predicting a state of an infectious disease spread within the target region for a given time. The prediction results generated by the trained infectious disease computer model are automatically compared to ground truth data to determine a deviation between the prediction results and the ground truth data. The ground truth data comprises at least one of actual case report data collected and reported by source computing systems for the given time, or a previous prediction result generated by the trained infectious disease computer model. Statistical test(s) are applied to the deviation to determine if it is statistically significant, and if so, re-training of the trained infectious disease computer model is automatically initiated.