Abstract: A comprehensive computer implemented method provides the effect on contribution margin that results from substituting a test product for an incumbent product in the test product's peer group. The method normalizes test and control store data by applying subcategory indices to calculate margin lift and to forecast sales for selected store distribution. The method further determines the effect of new product build-rate on forecasted sales for test products in their first year of distribution. The method calculates a plurality of cost and income effects on contribution margin including net vendor funding, advertising and promotion effects, net markdowns, incumbent item disposition costs, and net plan-o-gram expense among others. The system provides a category manager with a single dollar metric that specifically identifies the economic effect of authorizing distribution for a test product in all or a subset of the retailer's stores.