Abstract: One embodiment of the present invention provides a system that forecasts earthquakes. During operation, the system generates a relative intensity (RI) map of a geographic region, wherein the RI map represents a normalized intensity in seismic activity over the geographic region during a time period from t0 to t2, wherein t0<t2. The system additionally generates a pattern informatics (PI) map of the geographic region, wherein the PI map represents a time-averaged change in the normalized intensity in seismic activity during a change interval from t1 to t2, wherein t1<t2. Next, the system compares the PI map against the RI map. The system then forecasts an earthquake with a magnitude greater than m within the geographic region based on the comparison between the PI map and the RI map.