Abstract: A method and system provide a process and means for using a general-purpose computer to transform data representing past agricultural commodity market prices, stock amounts and support prices, into forecasts of future market prices and price volatilities to use to aid in allocating industrial and technological resources in the management and procurement of the commodities and stocks thereof. Governmental price supports and stock effects are explicitly incorporated while price volatility varies over time, thereby reflecting short-term changes in market conditions. Non-linear model specifications and forecasting functions jointly incorporate price support and time-series analysis into a dynamic censored-regression model of a commodity market. A version further enables the incorporation of price effects among linked commodity markets.

Abstract: Using a general-purpose computer, the method and system of the present invention enables the forecasting of agricultural commodity prices and amounts of consumption, production and trade flows across regions, under a variety of supply and demand, trade and domestic policy scenarios and over an at least annual time period. The method employs a multi-component spatial equilibrium function approximating an inter-regional market in agricultural commodities, such as dairy commodities, and enables the setting of trade and domestic policy instruments to enable forecasting under a variety of forecast scenarios. The function further enables the incorporation of intermediate commodities, in addition to primary and processed commodities, to account for the effects of reconstitution technologies on said forecasted values.

Abstract: The present invention comprises a methodology for forecasting the effects of domestic and international trade policies on future trends in world dairy trade on an annualized as well as longer-term basis. The spatial hedonic equilibrium model employed in the present invention is used to analyze world dairy sector data and to forecast future trends by simulating the regional market equilibrium impacts of trade policies in the world dairy sector. The model reflects both vertical (e.g. the processing of farm milk into many different dairy products processing that reflects the allocation of milk components (e.g., milkfats, caseins, whey proteins and lactose) to various dairy commodities including primary, intermediate and processed commodities) and spatial characteristics (e.g. the distribution of milk production, demand and trade for dairy products in different regions of the world). Both domestic and trade policies, and their variations among countries, are incorporated in the model.