Abstract: A system and method for determining the performance of a real-time communication application, such as a video codec and transmission of the coded data. The method factors in burst data packet loss in determining a performance measure. The method uses a Hidden Markov Model on a set of data packets of a unit of data to determine the performance measure in the form a probability that all the data packets within the set are received. The measure is used to fine tune the system settings. The method causes the real-time communication application to adjust parameters of the application for improved transmission of data packets. The adjustment of a parameter can be an increase or a decrease.