Abstract: A system and process to estimate persuasiveness of public messaging using surveys are disclosed. According to one embodiment, a method comprises selecting survey participants. Pre-screening question responses are received from the survey participants. The survey participants are divided randomly into a control group and a treatment group. The treatment group is shown a creative and a control group is shown nothing or a placebo. After the creative has been shown, participants are asked post-message questions such as purchase intent, favorability of the brand, and brand awareness. Weighting and bias correction are applied to question responses. An effects report is generated that includes an average treatment effect and a backlash probability for the creative, and treatment effects specific to subgroups.