Abstract: A computer-based method includes collecting a sequence of measurements related to a controllable environmental parameter in a monitored space over time, deriving a master curve based on the sequence of collected measurements to characterize normal periodic variations in the controllable environmental parameter over time, collecting one or more subsequent measurements that represent the controllable environmental parameter of the monitored space, and evaluating a likelihood that the controllable environmental parameter will, at some future point in time, exceed an acceptable level by comparing a curve associated with one or more of the subsequent measurements to the master curve.