Abstract: A method, system and program storage device for history matching and forecasting of subterranean reservoirs is provided. Reservoir parameters and probability models associated with a reservoir model are defined. A likelihood function associated with observed data is also defined. A usable likelihood proxy for the likelihood function is constructed. Reservoir model parameters are sampled utilizing the usable proxy for the likelihood function and utilizing the probability models to determine a set of retained models. Forecasts are estimated for the retained models using a forecast proxy. Finally, computations are made on the parameters and forecasts associated with the retained models to obtain at least one of probability density functions, cumulative density functions and histograms for the reservoir model parameters and forecasts. The system carries out the above method and the program storage device carries instructions for carrying out the method.

Abstract: A method, system and program storage device for history matching and forecasting of subterranean reservoirs is provided. Reservoir parameters and probability models associated with a reservoir model are defined. A likelihood function associated with observed data is also defined. A usable likelihood proxy for the likelihood function is constructed. Reservoir model parameters are sampled utilizing the usable proxy for the likelihood function and utilizing the probability models to determine a set of retained models. Forecasts are estimated for the retained models using a forecast proxy. Finally, computations are made on the parameters and forecasts associated with the retained models to obtain at least one of probability density functions, cumulative density functions and histograms for the reservoir model parameters and forecasts. The system carries out the above method and the program storage device carries instructions for carrying out the method.