Abstract: A computer-based system and method are provided for minimizing the overall cost of providing health care for a chronic disease. To do this, an operating point is selected on a ROC curve to classify patients in a defined population. Based on this classification, patients in the population are classified and placed on either of a pair of pathways for health care. One pathway involves relatively low-cost health care treatment, but potentially repetitive involvement with the patient. The other pathway involves relatively high-cost treatment, but only episodic involvement with the patient. Placement of each entity on a selected pathway is done to collectively minimize the overall cost of providing health care.