Abstract: Example embodiments provide systems and methods for simulating a disease outbreak based on a limited number of input parameters. In one embodiment, a disease severity level is computed based on a relationship between leaf wetness duration and average temperature during a wetness period. The resulting model can be a physical, deterministic model that accepts hourly weather data as input and outputs the most significant severity event of disease infection during a specified period.

Abstract: Example embodiments provide systems and methods for simulating a disease outbreak using a relatively simple formula based on a limited number of input parameters. In particular, disease severity is computed based on a relationship between leaf wetness duration and average temperature during a wetness period. The resulting model is a physical, deterministic model that accepts hourly weather data as input and outputs the most significant severity event of disease infection during a specified (e.g., one-day) period. This information can then be used to guide the application of various treatments when they can be most effective (e.g., when predicted disease severity is at its worst).

Abstract: Example embodiments provide systems and methods for simulating a disease outbreak using a relatively simple formula based on a limited number of input parameters. In particular, disease severity is computed based on a relationship between leaf wetness duration and average temperature during a wetness period. The resulting model is a physical, deterministic model that accepts hourly weather data as input and outputs the most significant severity event of disease infection during a specified (e.g., one-day) period. This information can then be used to guide the application of various treatments when they can be most effective (e.g., when predicted disease severity is at its worst).