Abstract: An golf tournament simulation method may include generating predicted hole scores for each hole of each round of a golf tournament. Historical shot data corresponding to a historical occurrence of one or more hole events may be utilized as weight to generate predicted outcomes of hole events for each hole. A score probability distribution may be assigned to the predicted outcomes to generate predicted hole scores. Simulations may be analyzed for predicted outcome probabilities such as win probability, cutline, or Top-10 finish probability. The simulations may be updated during actual play by replacing predicted scores with actual scores. Predicted outcome probabilities may be updated based on the updated simulations updated to include the actual scores.