Abstract: A system includes a processor and memory providing instructions for execution by the processor. The instructions include, responsive to a request from a user device indicating a group type and a time frame, selecting a set of users based on the group type. The instructions include retrieving the user data and historical data from a database and identifying a set of new users during the time frame. The instructions include adding the set of new users to the set of users and generating synthetic historical data for the set of users. The instructions include, based on the synthetic historical data for each user, computing a likelihood of discontinuation of a drugs and computing a likelihood of initiation of a drug. The instructions include estimating, for the group type, an aggregated output based on the likelihoods of initiation and discontinuation. The instructions include displaying the aggregated output on the user device.

Abstract: A system includes a processor and memory providing instructions for execution by the processor. The instructions include, responsive to a request from a user device indicating a group type and a time frame, selecting a set of users based on the group type. The instructions include retrieving the user data and historical data from a database and identifying a set of new users during the time frame. The instructions include adding the set of new users to the set of users and generating synthetic historical data for the set of users. The instructions include, based on the synthetic historical data for each user, computing a likelihood of discontinuation of a drugs and computing a likelihood of initiation of a drug. The instructions include estimating, for the group type, an aggregated output based on the likelihoods of initiation and discontinuation. The instructions include displaying the aggregated output on the user device.

Abstract: The present disclosure describes calculating, using a stochastic medical performance model, to predict behavior of a member set for a medical plan. The member set includes virtual members that may be added over the time period of interest to a medical plan. The member set may remove actual members from the member set if it is predicted that they will leave the plan over the time period.