Abstract: Systems and methods for determining bid adjustments that may result in lower costs and/or increased benefit to content providers, and providing recommendations for adjusting a bidding strategy accordingly, are disclosed. One method includes determining a first marginal cost associated with a first set of one or more of a plurality of auctions for presentation of content items within one or more resources. The marginal costs represents a cost to a content provider associated with an additional action performed in association with the content items presented within the resources. The method further includes determining a second marginal cost associated with a second set of one or more of the plurality of auctions. The method further includes determining whether a difference between the first marginal cost and the second marginal cost exceeds a threshold, and generating a recommendation to adjust a bidding strategy in response to determining the difference exceeds the threshold.

Abstract: Systems and methods for anomaly detection and guided analysis using structural time-series model. A server may receive a request from a client to analyze a time-series data comprising a plurality of data points. A database of global calendars may be accessed. A structural time-series model may be built from the time-series data and the database of global calendars, the structural time-series model comprising a hidden structure and a plurality of probability distributions, each probability distribution corresponding to a data point. For each data point of the time-series data, a range of expected values is determined from a respective probability distribution, the range of expected values capturing a predefined percentage of the respective probability distribution. An anomaly is detected at a first data point of the time-series data responsive to comparing the first data point with a respective range of expected values. The anomaly is transmitted to the client for display with the time-series data.