Abstract: A system of inventory variance detection modeling is described. The system comprises a server computer, a processor, a memory, and an application stored in the memory that, when executed by the processor, receives a report associating electronic serial numbers of devices with a plurality of instances of inventory shrinkage. The system also assembles a list of electronic serial numbers of devices associated with instances of a first type of inventory shrinkage. The system also receives a report of the processing history of the devices associated with the electronic serial numbers contained in the list in a plurality of non-logistics and non-warehousing systems. The system also determines the statistical correlation of electronic serial numbers contained in the list with each of a plurality of exceptions processed by at least one of the non-logistics and non-warehousing systems.