Abstract: A method for setting a performance target in an outcome driven business model. The method includes receiving historical data, comprising industry performance data, for the outcome driven business model and performance target settings, including a forecasting horizon and confidence level. The method includes calculating, for a plurality of forecasting methods and the forecasting horizon, a function associated with a probability of an industry benchmark performance meeting a threshold value. The method includes determining, based on the function for each of the plurality of forecasting methods, a best forecasting method of the plurality of forecasting methods at the forecasting horizon and the confidence level. The method includes calculating, based on the historical data and the forecasting horizon, using the best forecasting method, a forecast benchmark value.