Abstract: Systems and methods for determining location-based occurrence probability during a live event, including: receiving, from at least one sensor, movement data for at least one object moving in the live event, wherein the movement data comprises location data of the at least one object in the area of the live event, receiving statistical information for the at least one object, and dynamically determining an occurrence probability for movement of the at least one object, during progress of the live event, for each of a plurality of areas where the live event occurs, where the occurrence probability is determined based on the receiving movement data and based on the received statistical information, and wherein a size of each of the plurality of areas dynamically changes based on at least one of: the received movement data and the received statistical information.