Abstract: A computing system retrieves historical hole-by-hole data for a plurality of holes for plurality of golf tournaments for a plurality of players. The computing system clusters the plurality of holes into a plurality of clusters of hole types. The computing system generates a strokes gained metric for each hole type of the hole-by-hole data for each player. The computing system adjusts the strokes gained metric for each hole type. The computing system generates a probability of player performance of each player for each hole in the target tournament based at least one the adjusted strokes gained metric. The probability of player performance includes a probability of each player achieving each possible score for each hole. The computing system generates a projected outcome of the tournament by simulating player performance using the probability of player performance of each player.

Abstract: A computing system retrieves historical hole-by-hole data for a plurality of holes for plurality of golf tournaments for a plurality of players. The historical hole-by-hole data includes a yardage of each hole and a par associated with each hole. The computing system clusters the plurality of holes into a plurality of clusters of hole types. The computing system generates a strokes gained metric for each hole type of the hole-by-hole data for each player. The computing system adjusts the strokes gained metric for each hole type based on a field of strength metric associated with each tournament. The field of strength metric represents a strength of a player field in a given tournament. The computing system generates a ranking of the plurality of players based on the adjusted strokes gained metric.