Abstract: A method for estimating the cost of completion at the end of a first time interval of a new program uses a plurality of tasks, program phases and new elements. The estimation steps require making an initial cost allocation for each task within the new program. Then, tailoring the cost allocation for the program phases to obtain a normalized value. Subsequently, compute a schedule aggressiveness; a requirements volatility; and a complexity, where the complexity identifies new elements within the new program. Next, combine the normalized value, the schedule aggressiveness, the requirements volatility, and the complexity to extrapolate an end cost for each of the tasks from the initial allocation for the end of the first interval. After summing the end cost for each of the tasks to obtain a first value, adjusting the first value using a resource needs ratio and a calibration factor to arrive at an estimated cost of completion of the new program at the end of the first interval.