Abstract: Systems, methods, and other embodiments associated with predicting customer behavior are described. The method can include identifying a group comprising customers who satisfy a defined criterion, and receiving input that identifies a factor that influences a decision by the customers to purchase a product. A likelihood that the factor will induce the customers in the group to purchase the product is generated. A customer influence on the generated likelihood is estimated independently of data expressly identifying relationships between the customers in the group. The likelihood is modified by combining the likelihood and the customer influence according to a predictive model, and one or more of the customers eligible for a promotional offer related to the product is identified based, at least in part, on the modified likelihood. Transmission of the promotional offer is controlled to transmit the promotional offer to the identified customers in the group.