Abstract: A method, apparatus, computer system and a program storage device for modeling a business process to assess risk is provided. A preferred embodiment of the method includes the steps of: (a) creating a high level model for the business process, (b) modeling a calculation algorithm for the business process; and (c) testing the model; wherein one or more views are used in each of steps (a), (b) and (c); and wherein the pattern technique of identifying and visualizing uncertainty is used in each of steps (a), (b) and (c), in increasing detail at each successive step.

Abstract: A method of generating a decision tree for a seismic to simulation workflow, including: identifying a plurality of elements of the seismic to simulation workflow; receiving a plurality of modeling scenarios for each of the plurality of elements, where each of the plurality of modeling scenarios is associated with a realization of the seismic to simulation workflow; receiving a plurality of probabilities for the plurality of modeling scenarios; and generating a decision tree comprising a plurality of nodes and a plurality of branches in response to said plurality of modeling scenarios, where each level of the decision tree is associated with one of the plurality of elements, where the plurality of nodes are associated with the plurality of modeling scenarios, and where the plurality of branches are based on the plurality of probabilities.

Abstract: A method and associated system and program storage device and computer program is disclosed for generating a decision tree, the method comprising: receiving a plurality of modeling scenarios representing a corresponding plurality of workflows; and generating a decision tree in response to the plurality of modeling scenarios.

Abstract: The method of managing project uncertainties using event chains is disclosed. The method includes the steps of: (a) identification of events which may occur during a course of an activity, determining their probability and impact, (b) identification of event chains; and (c) performing quantitative analysis to determine effect of events and event chains on a project schedule. Quantitative analysis may be performed using Monte Carlo simulations. Events and event chains may be identified using project historical data and based on analysis of actual project performance. Event chain diagrams may be used to visualize events and event chains. Identification of critical events or event chains may be performed using sensitivity analysis.