Abstract: The present invention provides a method and a device for predicting the change in the water cut rising rate of a water-drive oil reservoir. The method comprises: determining the actual water cut rising rates and water cuts of the oil reservoir, plotting the scatter plot of the actual water cut rising rates and water cuts of the oil reservoir; fitting the scatter plot of the actual water cut rising rates and water cuts of the oil reservoir to a relationship between the water cut rising rate and the water cut, to obtain the initial water cut of the oil reservoir, the degree of recovery of crude oil when the water cut of the oil reservoir is the initial water cut, the ultimate recovery of crude oil when the water cut of the oil reservoir is the water cut limit; and determining the law of change in the water cut rising rate with respect to the degree of recovery and the change in the water cut rising rate in the water-drive oil reservoir.