Abstract: A system and method for predicting or forecasting rare events, such as instances of violent crime within a spatial region, in combination with other correlative variables, such as weather data. One or more machine learning algorithms is employed in order to predict rare events in conjunction with geospatial information and one or more correlative variables. By employing a combination of a downsampling of the rare event data, followed by the application of an ensemble of machine learning algorithms, increased precision of the predictions of future occurrences of the rare events may be achieved.