Abstract: Observed driveline mean and variance data are used for determining the variance of a trajectory of tracked objects for use by a host vehicle. A map of a portion of a vehicle transportation network are determined, wherein the map is comprised of observed driveline mean and variance data for one or more map points. At least one trajectory of a tracked object is predicted, wherein a trajectory includes a series of location each corresponding to a respective predicted position of the tracked object at a future time. A map-based variance is generated for the location of the trajectory using a smoothed curvature of the trajectory within the map. A control system of the vehicle operates the vehicle using the map-based variance as input.

Abstract: Map and kinematic based predictions are used for determining the trajectory of road users for use by a host vehicle. A kinematic trajectory of a road user is determined. The road user is associated with mapped lanes. At least one path of the road user is predicted using the mapped lanes. For a path of the at least one path, a probability is generated using the kinematic trajectory of the road user, wherein the probability represents how likely the road user will continue following the path. A kinematic prediction of the road user is generated using the probability corresponding to the path, wherein the kinematic prediction represents how likely the road user will follow an alternative path to the at least one path. Using at least one control system of a vehicle, a control action for the vehicle is determined using the at least one path and the kinematic prediction.

Abstract: Proactively mitigating risk to a vehicle traversing a vehicle transportation network includes identifying a location for a virtual vehicle. The virtual vehicle is added to a world object model maintained with respect to the vehicle. A trajectory is predicted for the virtual vehicle. The vehicle is autonomously controlled according to an adjusted trajectory that is based on the trajectory for the virtual vehicle. The adjusted trajectory includes at least one of a lateral constraint or a speed constraint. The location for the virtual vehicle is identified based on a lane in map data, a trajectory of a vehicle, and a perceptible area by sensors of the vehicle. The virtual vehicle is a hypothetical vehicle that is not observed by sensors of the vehicle.