Abstract: Methods and systems that estimate a degree of abnormality of a complex system based on historical time-series data representative of the complex system's past behavior and using the historical degree of abnormality to determine whether or not a degree of abnormality determined from current time-series data representative of the same complex system's current behavior is worthy of attention. The time-series data may be metric data that represents behavior of a complex system as a result of successive measurements of the complex system made over time or in a time interval. A degree of abnormality represents the amount by which the time-series data violates a threshold. The larger the degree of abnormality of the current time-series data is from the historical degree of abnormality, the larger the violation of the thresholds and the greater the probability the violation in the current time-series data is worthy of attention.

Abstract: A problem in a cloud infrastructure may be identified when a server computer deviates from a normal level of operation based on anomaly scores, which generates an alert and an alert time that indicates when the alert is generated. Methods then determine which virtual machine (“VM”) and other IT objects/resources or their pools contribute to the problem within a time window surrounding the estimated problem start time and calculate which objects show similar, related anomalous behavior. Methods also generate ranked remediation recommendations on an object level and server computer-to-object level. The methods generate results that enable a system administrator to identify the start time of the problem and identify the objects that are responsible for the problem.

Abstract: This disclosure is directed to data-agnostic computational methods and systems for adjusting hard thresholds based on user feedback. Hard thresholds are used to monitor time-series data generated by a data-generating entity. The time-series data may be metric data that represents usage of the data-generating entity over time. The data is compared with a hard threshold associated with usage of the resource or process and when the data violates the threshold, an alert is typically generated and presented to a user. Methods and systems collect user feedback after a number of alerts to determine the quality and significance of the alerts. Based on the user feedback, methods and systems automatically adjust the hard thresholds to better represent how the user perceives the alerts.

Abstract: This disclosure presents computational systems and methods for detecting anomalies in data output from any type of monitoring tool. The data is aggregated and sent to an alerting system for abnormality detection via comparison with normalcy bounds. The anomaly detection methods are performed by construction of normalcy bounds of the data based on the past behavior of the data output from the monitoring tool. The methods use data quality assurance and data categorization processes that allow choosing a correct procedure for determination of the normalcy bounds. The methods are completely data agnostic, and as a result, can also be used to detect abnormalities in time series data associated with any complex system.

Abstract: This disclosure is directed to automated methods and systems for calculating hard thresholds used to monitor time-series data generated by data-generating entity. The methods are based on determining a cumulative distribution that characterizes the probability that data values of time-series data generated by the data-generating entity violate a hard threshold. The hard threshold is calculated as an inverse of the cumulative distribution based on a user defined risk confidence level. The hard threshold may then be used to generate alerts when time-series data generated later by the data-generating entity violate the hard threshold.

Abstract: Methods and systems that manage large volumes of metric data generation by cloud-computing infrastructures are described. The cloud-computing infrastructure generates sets of metric data, each set of metric data may represent usage or performance of an application or application module run by the cloud-computing infrastructure or may represent use or performance of cloud-computing resources used by the applications. The metric data management methods and systems are composed of separate modules that perform sequential application of metric data reduction techniques on different levels of data abstraction in order to reduce volume of metric data collected. In particular, the modules determine normalcy bounds, delete highly correlated metric data, and delete metric data with highly correlated normalcy bound violations.

Abstract: The current document is directed to an analysis subsystem within a large distributed computing system, such as a virtual data center or cloud-computing facility, that monitors the operational states associated with a multi-tiered application and provides useful information for determining one or more causes of various types of failures and undesirable operational states that may arise during operation of the multi-tiered application. In one implementation, the analysis subsystem collects metrics provided by various different types of metrics sources within the computational system and employs principal feature analysis to select a generally small subset of the collected metrics particularly relevant to monitoring a multi-tiered application and diagnosing underlying causes of operational states of the multi-tiered application. The analysis subsystem develops one or more conditional probability distributions with respect to the subset of metrics.

Abstract: A problem in a cloud infrastructure may be identified when a server computer deviates from a normal level of operation based on anomaly scores, which generates an alert and an alert time that indicates when the alert is generated. Methods then determine which virtual machine (“VM”) and other IT objects/resources or their pools contribute to the problem within a time window surrounding the estimated problem start time and calculate which objects show similar, related anomalous behavior. Method also generate ranked remediation recommendations on an object level and server computer-to-object level. The methods generate results that enable a system administrator to identify the start time of the problem and identify the objects that are responsible for the problem.

Abstract: This disclosure is directed to data-agnostic computational methods and systems for adjusting hard thresholds based on user feedback. Hard thresholds are used to monitor time-series data generated by a data-generating entity. The time-series data may be metric data that represents usage of the data-generating entity over time. The data is compared with a hard threshold associated with usage of the resource or process and when the data violates the threshold, an alert is typically generated and presented to a user. Methods and systems collect user feedback after a number of alerts to determine the quality and significance of the alerts. Based on the user feedback, methods and systems automatically adjust the hard thresholds to better represent how the user perceives the alerts.

Abstract: This disclosure is directed to data-agnostic computational methods and systems for adjusting hard thresholds based on user feedback. Hard thresholds are used to monitor time-series data generated by a data-generating entity. The time-series data may be metric data that represents usage of the data-generating entity over time. The data is compared with a hard threshold associated with usage of the resource or process and when the data violates the threshold, an alert is typically generated and presented to a user. Methods and systems collect user feedback after a number of alerts to determine the quality and significance of the alerts. Based on the user feedback, methods and systems automatically adjust the hard thresholds to better represent how the user perceives the alerts.

Abstract: Cycles and other patterns within time-series data are determined. Time-series data are transformed into discretized sets of clustered data that are organized by time period. Comparison is made of the organized data to determine similar time periods and multiclusters of the similar time periods are formed. From the multicluster data, cycles are identified from which thresholds and other useful data may be derived, or the data used for other useful purposes.

Abstract: The current document is directed to an analysis subsystem within a large distributed computing system, such as a virtual data center or cloud-computing facility, that monitors the operational states associated with a multi-tiered application and provides useful information for determining one or more causes of various types of failures and undesirable operational states that may arise during operation of the multi-tiered application. In one implementation, the analysis subsystem collects metrics provided by various different types of metrics sources within the computational system and employs principal feature analysis to select a generally small subset of the collected metrics particularly relevant to monitoring a multi-tiered application and diagnosing underlying causes of operational states of the multi-tiered application. The analysis subsystem develops one or more conditional probability distributions with respect to the subset of metrics.

Abstract: Methods and systems that manage large volumes of metric data generation by cloud-computing infrastructures are described. The cloud-computing infrastructure generates sets of metric data, each set of metric data may represent usage or performance of an application or application module run by the cloud-computing infrastructure or may represent use or performance of cloud-computing resources used by the applications. The metric data management methods and systems are composed of separate modules that perform sequential application of metric data reduction techniques on different levels of data abstraction in order to reduce volume of metric data collected. In particular, the modules determine normalcy bounds, delete highly correlated metric data, and delete metric data with highly correlated normalcy bound violations.

Abstract: Methods and systems that estimate a degree of abnormality of a complex system based on historical time-series data representative of the complex system's past behavior and using the historical degree of abnormality to determine whether or not a degree of abnormality determined from current time-series data representative of the same complex system's current behavior is worthy of attention. The time-series data may be metric data that represents behavior of a complex system as a result of successive measurements of the complex system made over time or in a time interval. A degree of abnormality represents the amount by which the time-series data violates a threshold. The larger the degree of abnormality of the current time-series data is from the historical degree of abnormality, the larger the violation of the thresholds and the greater the probability the violation in the current time-series data is worthy of attention.

Abstract: This disclosure is directed to computational, closed-loop user feedback systems and methods for ranking or updating beliefs for a user based on user feedback. The systems and methods are based on a data-agnostic user feedback formulation that uses user feedback to automatically rank beliefs for a user or update the beliefs. The methods and systems are based on a general statistical inference model, which, in turn, is based on an assumption of convergence in user opinion. The closed-loop user feedback methods and systems may be used to rank or update beliefs prior to inputting the beliefs to a recommender engine. As a result, the recommender engine is expected to be more responsive to customer environments and efficient at deployment and reducing the level of unnecessary user recommendations.

Abstract: This disclosure presents systems and methods for run-time analysis of streams of log data for abnormalities using a statistical structure of meta-data associated with the log data. The systems and methods convert a log data stream into meta-data and perform statistical analysis in order to reveal a dominant statistical pattern within the meta-data. The meta-data is represented as a graph with nodes that represent each of the different event types, which are detected in the stream along with event sources associated with the events. The systems and methods use real-time analysis to compare a portion of a current log data stream collected in an operational window with historically collected meta-data represented by a graph in order to determine the degree of abnormality of the current log data stream collected in the operational window.

Abstract: Cycles and other patterns within time-series data are determined. Time-series data are transformed into discretized sets of clustered data that are organized by time period. Comparison is made of the organized data to determine similar time periods and multiclusters of the similar time periods are formed. From the multicluster data, cycles are identified from which thresholds and other useful data may be derived, or the data used for other useful purposes.

Abstract: This disclosure is directed to automated methods and systems for calculating hard thresholds used to monitor time-series data generated by data-generating entity. The methods are based on determining a cumulative distribution that characterizes the probability that data values of time-series data generated by the data-generating entity violate a hard threshold. The hard threshold is calculated as an inverse of the cumulative distribution based on a user defined risk confidence level. The hard threshold may then be used to generate alerts when time-series data generated later by the data-generating entity violate the hard threshold.

Abstract: This disclosure is directed to data-agnostic computational methods and systems for adjusting hard thresholds based on user feedback. Hard thresholds are used to monitor time-series data generated by a data-generating entity. The time-series data may be metric data that represents usage of the data-generating entity over time. The data is compared with a hard threshold associated with usage of the resource or process and when the data violates the threshold, an alert is typically generated and presented to a user. Methods and systems collect user feedback after a number of alerts to determine the quality and significance of the alerts. Based on the user feedback, methods and systems automatically adjust the hard thresholds to better represent how the user perceives the alerts.

Abstract: A system and method are provided for determining problem conditions in an IT infrastructure using aggregate anomaly analysis. The anomalies in the metrics occurring in the monitored IT infrastructure are aggregated from all resources reporting metrics as a function of time. The aggregated metric anomalies are then normalized to account for the state of the monitored IT infrastructure to provide a normalized aggregate anomaly count. A threshold noise level is then determined utilizing a variably selectable desired level of confidence such that a problem event is only determined to likely be occurring in the IT infrastructure when the normalized aggregate anomaly count exceeds the threshold noise level. The normalized aggregate anomaly count is monitored against the threshold noise level as a function of time, such that a problem event in the IT infrastructure is identified when the normalized aggregate anomaly count exceeds the threshold noise level at a given time.