Abstract: Embodiments of the present invention relate to systems, methods and computer program products that model consumer leverage and provide a leading indicator that predicts increases or decreases in consumer net non-collectibles. To do so, for example, the present invention determines the growth of consumers' spending and borrowing, and tracks a relationship between the value of a ratio that compares consumers' spending and borrowing and the value of the equilibrium of the ratio that compares consumers' spending and borrowing. This relationship is then applied to predict changes in consumers' ability to repay borrowed funds and consumer net non-collectibles.

Abstract: Embodiments of the present invention evaluate consumer spending and borrowing patterns and, based thereon, forecast changes in consumer failure to repay rates. Embodiments of the present invention then develop macroeconomic variables that reflect the forecasted changes in consumer failure to repay rates and implement those macroeconomic variables into credit-approval decision models. The implemented macroeconomic variables adjust the decision models' credit-approval thresholds to account for the forecasted changes in consumer failure to repay rates. For example, if forecasts indicate decreasing credit failure to repay rates, then macroeconomic variables are developed and implemented in decision models to reduce credit-approval thresholds, thereby reducing qualifying creditworthiness scores and making it easier to get credit.