Abstract: Generally discussed herein are systems, devices, and methods for mitigating damage caused by a hazard. A method can include identifying at least two effects that, with some probability, at least partially mitigate the hazard, identifying one or more vulnerabilities of the hazard that are the target for an effect of the identified effects, for each hazard, vulnerability pair, identifying a respective hazard model that simulates a state of the hazard in response to the effect, identifying effect models that simulate the respective effects, normalizing each of the identified effect models to a common model and determining a confidence level for each parameter of each normalized model, and simulating combinations of effects by combining normalized models and recording their combined effect on the hazard and a corresponding combined confidence level for the normalized models.