Abstract: The disclosure generally describes computer-implemented methods, software, and systems for determining patient adherence to a prescribed therapy. One computer-implemented method includes accessing a series of total prescription measurements and a series of new-to-brand prescription measurements for a pharmaceutical product over a study period. A model is developed that predicts patient adherence to the pharmaceutical product by applying a computer-based training algorithm to the accessed series of total prescription measurements and the accessed series of new-to-brand prescription measurements. Based on the developed model, future values of patient adherence to a therapy including the pharmaceutical product are predicted. A report containing the predicted future values of patient adherence is generated and stored.