Abstract: A parallel processing technique can be used to expedite reconciliation of a hierarchy of forecasts on a computer system. As one example, the computer system can receive forecasts that have a hierarchical relationship with respect to one another. The computer system can distribute the forecasts among a group of computing nodes by time point, so that all data points corresponding to the same time point in the forecasts are assigned to the same computing node. The computing nodes can receive the datasets corresponding to the time points, organize the data points in each of the datasets by forecast to generate ordered datasets, and assign the ordered datasets to processing threads. The processing threads (across the computing nodes) can then execute a reconciliation process in parallel to one another to generate reconciled values, which can be output by the computing nodes.

Abstract: A pipeline system for time-series data forecasting using a distributed computing environment is disclosed herein. In one example, a pipeline for forecasting time series is generated. The pipeline represents a sequence of operations for processing the time series to produce modeling results such as forecasts of the time series. The pipeline includes a segmentation operation for categorizing the time series into multiple demand classes based on demand characteristics of the time series. The pipeline also includes multiple sub-pipelines corresponding to the multiple demand classes. Each of the sub-pipelines applies a model strategy to the time series in the corresponding demand class. The model strategy is selected from multiple candidate model strategies based on predetermined relationships between the demand classes and the candidate model strategies. The pipeline is executed to determine the modeling results for the time series.

Abstract: A pipeline system for time-series data forecasting using a distributed computing environment is disclosed herein. In one example, a pipeline for forecasting time series is generated. The pipeline represents a sequence of operations for processing the time series to produce modeling results such as forecasts of the time series. The pipeline includes a segmentation operation for categorizing the time series into multiple demand classes based on demand characteristics of the time series. The pipeline also includes multiple sub-pipelines corresponding to the multiple demand classes. Each of the sub-pipelines applies a model strategy to the time series in the corresponding demand class. The model strategy is selected from multiple candidate model strategies based on predetermined relationships between the demand classes and the candidate model strategies. The pipeline is executed to determine the modeling results for the time series.

Abstract: The operation of a machine can be controlled by performing reconciliation using a cluster of nodes. In one example, a node can receive parent timestamped data from a parent dataset and child timestamped data from child datasets that are children of the parent dataset in a hierarchical relationship. The parent timestamped data and the child timestamped data can relate to an operational characteristic of the machine. The node can generate computer processing-threads. Each computer processing-thread can solve one or more respective reconciliation problems between a parent data point that has a particular timestamp in the parent timestamped data and child data points that also have the particular timestamp in the child timestamp data to generate a reconciled dataset. An operational setting of the machine can then be adjusted based on the reconciled dataset.

Abstract: The operation of a machine can be controlled by performing reconciliation using a cluster of nodes. In one example, a node can receive parent timestamped data from a parent dataset and child timestamped data from child datasets that are children of the parent dataset in a hierarchical relationship. The parent timestamped data and the child timestamped data can relate to an operational characteristic of the machine. The node can generate computer processing-threads. Each computer processing-thread can solve one or more respective reconciliation problems between a parent data point that has a particular timestamp in the parent timestamped data and child data points that also have the particular timestamp in the child timestamp data to generate a reconciled dataset. An operational setting of the machine can then be adjusted based on the reconciled dataset.

Abstract: Systems and methods are provided for predicting new product performance, such as by way of an interface that allows for structured judgment analysis. The disclosed systems and methods, allow for the optional intervention of an expert, for assessing which other products are most similar to the new product, for excluding certain data from a performance prediction analysis, and thus may allow use of the most similar product and useful data as the basis for forming a product prediction for the new product.

Abstract: Systems and methods for forecasting ratios in hierarchies are provided. Hierarchies can be formed that have components, including a numerator time series with values from input data, a denominator time series with values from input data, and a ratio time series of the numerator time series over the denominator time series. The components can be modeled to generate forecasted hierarchies. The forecasted hierarchies can be reconciled so that the forecasted hierarchies are statistically consistent throughout nodes of the forecasted hierarchies.

Abstract: Systems and methods for forecasting ratios in hierarchies are provided. Hierarchies can be formed that have components, including a numerator time series with values from input data, a denominator time series with values from input data, and a ratio time series of the numerator time series over the denominator time series. The components can be modeled to generate forecasted hierarchies. The forecasted hierarchies can be reconciled so that the forecasted hierarchies are statistically consistent throughout nodes of the forecasted hierarchies.

Abstract: Systems and methods for reconciling a forecast are presented. A method can be used that receives a plurality of hierarchical forecast data sets. An output child data set including an index value and a status indicator representing an unprocessed state is generated. A particular parent data set forecast is identified from a parent data set. Locations for a group of one or more child data set forecasts that are children of the particular parent data set forecast are identified and accessed. A reconciliation operation is performed, a particular child data set forecast is adjusted and stored in a record, and a status indicator for the record is modified.

Abstract: Systems and methods for reconciling a forecast for a dimension based upon data that is associated with the dimension. A method can be used that includes generating a plurality of forecasts for the dimensions such that the forecast of a first dimension is generated independently of a forecast of a second dimension. The forecast of the first dimension has a constraint that is influenced by the forecast of the second dimension. A reconciliation is performed between the forecast of the first dimension and the forecast of the second dimension in order to determine how the constraint of the first dimension's forecast is to influence the first dimension's forecast.

Abstract: Systems and methods for reconciling a forecast for a dimension based upon data that is associated with the dimension. A method can be used that includes generating a plurality of forecasts for the dimensions such that the forecast of a first dimension is generated independently of a forecast of a second dimension. The forecast of the first dimension has a constraint that is influenced by the forecast of the second dimension. A reconciliation is performed between the forecast of the first dimension and the forecast of the second dimension in order to determine how the constraint of the first dimension's forecast is to influence the first dimension's forecast.

Abstract: Computer-implemented systems and methods are provided for forecasting the performance of products newly introduced to a market. For example, a business that seeks to introduce a new product onto the market may query the data maintained by the business about the results of previous introductions of new products. Further, the computer-implemented systems and methods, with or without the intervention of a human expert, may assess which of the historical products are most similar to the new product that the business seeks to introduce, and thus may use the most similar product as the basis for forming a product forecast for the product that is to be newly introduced.