Abstract: A digital medium environment is described to estimate a resulting causal impact of a particular item of digital marketing content on a digital marketing outcome. A first sequence is identified of a plurality of items of digital marketing content provided to a first set of users taken from a plurality of users. the first sequence includes the particular item. A second sequence is constructed of the plurality of items of the digital marketing content by removing the particular item from the first sequence. A second set is identified of users from the plurality of users provided with the second sequence. The resulting causal impact is estimated of the particular item of digital marketing content on the digital marketing outcome based on first and second causal impacts for subsets of the first and second sets.