Abstract: Embodiments are directed to a computer-based tool that can identify an anomalous state of a component in a real-world environment, even if the component experiences gradual and/or seasonal trends. The tool receives data from sensors monitoring a component. The tool uses a trained machine learning model to calculate a predicted behavior of the monitored component. Actual behavior of the component, captured by current sensor readings, is compared to the predicted behavior of the component, calculated by the machine learning model, to compute a divergence. The computed divergence is used by a statistical learning method to determine if the component in the real-world environment is in an anomalous state.

Abstract: Computer-implemented methods and systems construct a calibrated operation-centric first-principles model suitable for online deployment to monitor, predict, and control real-time plant operations. The methods and systems identify a plant-wide first-principles model configured for offline use and select a modeled operating unit contained in the plant-wide model. The methods and systems convert the plant-wide model to an operation-centric first-principles model of the selected modeled operating unit. The methods and systems recalibrate the operation-centric model to function using real-time measurements collected by physical instruments of the operating unit at the plant. The recalibration may include reconciling flow and temperature, estimating feed compositions, and tuning liquid and vapor traffic flow in the model. The methods and systems deploy the operation-centric model to calculate KPIs (Key Performance Indicators) using real-time measurements.

Abstract: Computer-based methods and system perform root-cause analysis on an industrial process. A processor executes a hybrid first-principles and inferential model to generate KPIs for the industrial process using uploaded process data as variables. The processor selects a subset of the KPIs to represent an event occurring in the industrial process, and divides the selected data into time series. The system and methods select time intervals from the time series based on data variability and perform a cross-correlation between the loaded process variables and the selected time intervals, resulting in a cross-correlation score for each loaded process variable. Precursor candidates from the loaded process variables are selected based on the cross-correlation scores, and a strength of correlation score is obtained for each precursor candidate. The methods and system select root-cause variables from the selected precursor candidates based on the strength of correlation scores, and analyze the root-cause of the event.

Abstract: Computer-based methods and systems perform root cause analysis with the construction of a probabilistic graph model (PGM) that explains the, e.g., negative, event dynamics of a processing plant, demonstrates precursor profiles for real-time monitoring, and provides probabilistic prediction of plant event occurrence based on real-time data. The methods and systems establish causal relationships between processing events in the upstream and resulting events in the downstream sensor data. The methods and systems provide early warnings for online process monitoring in order to prevent undesired events. The methods and systems successfully combine historical time series data with PGM analysis for operational diagnosis and prevention in order to identify the root cause of one or more events in the midst of multitude of continuously occurring events.

Abstract: Embodiments are directed to computer methods and systems that construct a calibrated operation-centric first-principles model suitable for online deployment to monitor, predict, and control real-time plant operations. The methods and systems identify a plant-wide first-principles model configured for offline use and select a modeled operating unit contained in the plant-wide model. The methods and systems convert the plant-wide model to an operation-centric first-principles model of the selected modeled operating unit. The methods and systems recalibrate the operation-centric model to function using real-time measurements collected by physical instruments of the operating unit at the plant. The recalibration may include reconciling flow and temperature, estimating feed compositions, and tuning liquid and vapor traffic flow in the model.

Abstract: Computer-based methods and system perform root-cause analysis on an industrial process. A processor executes a hybrid first-principles and inferential model to generate KPIs for the industrial process using uploaded process data as variables. The processor selects a subset of the KPIs to represent an event occurring in the industrial process, and divides the selected data into time series. The system and methods select time intervals from the time series based on data variability and perform a cross-correlation between the loaded process variables and the selected time intervals, resulting in a cross-correlation score for each loaded process variable. Precursor candidates from the loaded process variables are selected based on the cross-correlation scores, and a strength of correlation score is obtained for each precursor candidate. The methods and system select root-cause variables from the selected precursor candidates based on the strength of correlation scores, and analyze the root-cause of the event.

Abstract: Computer-based methods and system perform root-cause analysis on an industrial process. A processor executes a hybrid first-principles and inferential model to generate KPIs for the industrial process using uploaded process data as variables. The processor selects a subset of the KPIs to represent an event occurring in the industrial process, and divides the selected data into time series. The system and methods select time intervals from the time series based on data variability and perform a cross-correlation between the loaded process variables and the selected time intervals, resulting in a cross-correlation score for each loaded process variable. Precursor candidates from the loaded process variables are selected based on the cross-correlation scores, and a strength of correlation score is obtained for each precursor candidate. The methods and system select root-cause variables from the selected precursor candidates based on the strength of correlation scores, and analyze the root-cause of the event.

Abstract: The present invention is directed to computer-based methods and system to perform root-cause analysis on an industrial process. The methods and system load process data for an industrial process from a historian database and build a hybrid first-principles and inferential model. The methods and system then executes the hybrid model to generate KPIs for the industrial process using the loaded process variables. The methods and system then selects a subset of the KPIs to represent an event occurring in the industrial process, and divides the data for the subset into multiple subset of time series. The system and methods select time intervals from the time series based on the data variability in the selected time intervals and perform a cross-correlation between the loaded process variables and the selected time interval, resulting in a cross-correlation score for each loaded process variable.