Abstract: A controller for a building control system includes processors and memory storing instructions that, when executed by the processors, cause the processors to perform operations including identifying zones within a building, analyzing data associated with the zones, and generating zone groupings based on the data associated with the zones. Each of the zone groupings define zone groups and specify which of the zones are grouped together to form each of the zone groups. The operations also include identifying a particular zone grouping from zone groupings based on the data associated with zones and using the particular zone grouping to generate control signals to operate equipment of the building control system to provide heating or cooling to the zones.

Abstract: A method for operating HVAC equipment includes obtaining building data for each of a plurality of time steps. The building data relates to resource usage of HVAC equipment. The method also includes calculating a recursive residual for each of a plurality of overlapping time periods using the building data. Each overlapping time period includes a subset of the plurality of time steps. The method also includes, for each of the plurality of time steps, calculating a metric based on the recursive residuals for overlapping time periods that end on or before the time step and automatically detecting a change in static factors for one or more buildings served by the HVAC equipment by comparing the metrics for the plurality of time steps based on a statistical property of the metrics.

Abstract: A building control system determines the uncertainty in a break even temperature parameter of an energy use model. The energy use model is used to predict energy consumption of a building site as a function of the break even temperature parameter and one or more predictor variables. The uncertainty in the break even temperature parameter is used to analyze energy performance of the building site.

Abstract: A building analysis system includes a communications interface that receives energy consumption data for a building site including energy-consuming building equipment. A processing circuit of the building analysis system calculates first and second regression statistics indicating a fit of an energy use model to the energy consumption data under a null hypothesis that the energy use model has a first parameter order and an alternative hypothesis that the energy use model has a second parameter order different from the first parameter order. The processing circuit generates a test statistic indicating an improvement between the first regression statistic and the second regression statistic, compares the test statistic to a threshold value to determine whether the improvement warrants rejecting the null hypothesis, and determines an appropriate parameter order for the energy use model based on a result of the comparison.

Abstract: A thermostat includes an equipment controller and a model predictive controller. The equipment controller is configured to drive the temperature of a building zone to an optimal temperature setpoint by operating HVAC equipment to provide heating or cooling to the building zone. The model predictive controller is configured to determine the optimal temperature setpoint by generating a cost function that accounts for a cost operating the HVAC equipment during each of a plurality of time steps in an optimization period, using a predictive model to predict the temperature of the building zone during each of the plurality of time steps, and optimizing the cost function subject to a constraint on the predicted temperature of the building zone to determine optimal temperature setpoints for each of the time steps.