Abstract: A loan determination system configured to determine and provide customized loans to an auto dealership based on iteratively updated dealership loan tiers (using predictive modeling that factors in performance of the specific dealership and others for a particular type of loan), a current dealership state, and input from the dealership. The system may analyze the success rates of various loan programs of one or more dealerships, build predictive models in order to determine a dealership state and associated loan tier, and recommend a particular loan program to the dealership based on the determination. Based on the dealership making a loan program selection and updated performance data, the predictive model data is updated and used to determine a new dealership state. Accordingly, the system may react to changes in dealership performance by recommending loan programs associated with a different loan tier.