Abstract: In example aspects of this disclosure, a method includes generating, by one or more computing devices, a parametric model that expresses condition states for each of a plurality of assets, and the probability of the assets transitioning between the condition states; generating, by the one or more computing devices, stochastic degradation predictions of a group of the assets, based on the condition states and the probability of transitioning between the condition states for at least some of the assets; and generating, by the one or more computing devices, a maintenance schedule based on: the stochastic degradation predictions of the group of the assets, costs of corrective maintenance for assets in a failed state, and costs of scheduled maintenance for the assets.

Abstract: A computer-implemented method, computer program product, and computer system for automated model predictive control. The computer system trains multiple step look-ahead regression models, using historical states and historical actions for a to-be-optimized system, for each timestep of a past time horizon. Regression models may be either linear or nonlinear in order to capture process dynamics and nonlinearity. The computer system generates optimization constraints for each timestep of a future time horizon. The computer system generates optimization variables, based on the multiple step look-ahead regression models, for each timestep of the future time horizon. The computer system constructs a mixed integer linear programming based optimization model that includes an objective function, the optimization constraints, and the optimization variables. Nonlinear regression models are converted into piecewise linear approximation functions.

Abstract: A system and method can be provided for constructing and training a decision tree for machine learning. A training set can be received. The decision tree can be initialized by constructing a root node and a root solver can be trained with the training set. A processor can grow the decision tree by iteratively splitting nodes of the decision tree, where at a node of the decision tree, dimension reduction is performed on features of data of the training set received at the node, and the data having reduced dimension is split based on a routing function, for routing to another node of the decision tree. The dimension reduction and the split can be performed together at the node based on solving a nonlinear optimization problem.

Abstract: Aspects of the invention include an optimal interpretable decision tree using integer linear programming techniques. A non-limiting example computer-implemented method includes receiving, using a processor, a plurality of data inputs from a process and selecting, using the processor, a data subset from the plurality of data inputs by solving linear programming to obtain a solution. The method builds and optimizes, using the processor, an optimal decision tree based on the data subset and alerts, using the processor, a user when a prediction of the optimal decision tree is greater than a threshold value.

Abstract: A system and a method of managing a manufacturing process includes receiving production data relating to the manufacturing process and determining an operational mode associated with the manufacturing process using historical, multivariate senor data. The method may further determine a recommended action to affect production based on the determined operational mode. The operational mode may be based on at least one of: a level of operation in a continuous flow process relating to a joint set of process variables, a representation of a joint dynamic of the set of process variables over a predefined length, and a joint configuration of an uptime/downtime of a plurality of units comprising a process flow.

Abstract: Aspects of the invention include implemented method includes selecting an optimization algorithm for the control system of a processing plant based on whether the control system is guided by a linear-based predictive model or a non-linear-based predictive model, in which a gradient is available. Calculating set-point variables using the optimization algorithm. Predicting an output based on the calculated set-point variables. Comparing an actual output at the processing plant to the predicted output. Suspending a physical process at the processing plant in response to the actual output being a threshold value apart from the predicted output.

Abstract: A computer-implemented method for providing interpretable predictions from a machine learning model includes receiving a data structure that represents a hierarchical structure of a set of features (X) used by one or more predictive models to generate a set of predictions (Y). An interpretability model is built corresponding to the predictive models, by assigning an interpretability to each prediction Yi based on the hierarchical structure. Assigning the interpretability includes decomposing X into a plurality of partitions Xj using the hierarchical structure, wherein X=U1NXj, N being the number of partitions. Further, each partition is decomposed into a plurality of sub-partitions using the hierarchical structure until atomic sub-partitions are obtained. A score is computed for each partition as a function of the predicted scores of the sub-partitions, wherein the predicted scores represent interactions between the sub-partitions. Further, an interpretation of a prediction is outputted.

Abstract: The disclosure relates to extraction of rationales for studied outcome. A method comprises: grouping features as expert to align with a set of operating practices; generating interpretable features using operating rules, combining with statistical dependence analysis to bin selected features to generate favorite practice actions; grouping features as expert that combine a subset of the interpretable features to align with a set of operating practices.

Abstract: Aspects of the invention include training an optimal interpretable decision tree for regression using mixed-integer linear programming techniques. A non-limiting example computer-implemented method includes receiving, using a processor, input data that includes time-series data. The method further includes training, using a binary mixed-integer linear program of the processor, an ODT for regression based on the input data. During the training process one or more outliers are filtered out by a linear loss model that minimizes training loss and outlier loss.

Abstract: Aspects of the invention include implemented method includes selecting an optimization algorithm for the control system of a processing plant based on whether the control system is guided by a linear-based predictive model or a non-linear-based predictive model, in which a gradient is available. Calculating set-point variables using the optimization algorithm. Predicting an output based on the calculated set-point variables. Comparing an actual output at the processing plant to the predicted output. Suspending a physical process at the processing plant in response to the actual output being a threshold value apart from the predicted output.

Abstract: A computer implemented method for automatically generating an optimization model for site-wide plant optimization includes mapping a process flow diagram of a plant process to a graph comprising nodes and edges, wherein the nodes represent processes and the edges represent flows between processes. A behavior is learned for each node of the graph based at least on historic data of the plant process. One or more regression functions are modeled for each node to predict an output of each of the processes, wherein the one or more regression functions are modeled based on the learned behavior for each node.

Abstract: A computer-implemented method for providing interpretable predictions from a machine learning model includes receiving a data structure that represents a hierarchical structure of a set of features (X) used by one or more predictive models to generate a set of predictions (Y). An interpretability model is built corresponding to the predictive models, by assigning an interpretability to each prediction Yi based on the hierarchical structure. Assigning the interpretability includes decomposing X into a plurality of partitions Xj using the hierarchical structure, wherein X=U1NXj, N being the number of partitions. Further, each partition is decomposed into a plurality of sub-partitions using the hierarchical structure until atomic sub-partitions are obtained. A score is computed for each partition as a function of the predicted scores of the sub-partitions, wherein the predicted scores represent interactions between the sub-partitions. Further, an interpretation of a prediction is outputted.

Abstract: Aspects of the invention include an optimal interpretable decision tree using integer linear programming techniques. A non-limiting example computer-implemented method includes receiving, using a processor, a plurality of data inputs from a process and selecting, using the processor, a data subset from the plurality of data inputs by solving linear programming to obtain a solution. The method builds and optimizes, using the processor, an optimal decision tree based on the data subset and alerts, using the processor, a user when a prediction of the optimal decision tree is greater than a threshold value.

Abstract: Aspects of the invention include a computer-implemented method including receiving, using a processor, a plurality of input process variables and a plurality of output process variables associated with a respective plurality of processes. The processor is used to create an optimal decision tree based on the plurality of input variables, plurality of output variables, and plurality of processes. For each of the plurality of processes, intermediate quality modes and corresponding controls are identified. The optimal decision tree is trained based on the identified intermediate quality modes and corresponding controls. Recommended control variable values are provided for each of the plurality of processes.

Abstract: A computer-implemented method for controlling a production system includes mapping, by a controller, the production system as a directed acyclic graph. The production system can include multiple plants that are represented as nodes and relations between the plants represented by edges of the directed acyclic graph. The method further includes generating, by the controller, a regression model for each of the plants in the production system. The method further includes predicting, by the controller, an output of each plant based on sensor data associated from each plant. The method further includes adjusting, by the controller, one or more control variables for each plant based on a target output by using machine learning. The method further includes adjusting, by the controller, the one or more control variables for each plant to generate the target output.

Abstract: A system and a method of managing a manufacturing process includes receiving production data relating to the manufacturing process and determining an operational mode associated with the manufacturing process using historical, multivariate senor data. The method may further determine a recommended action to affect production based on the determined operational mode. The operational mode may be based on at least one of: a level of operation in a continuous flow process relating to a joint set of process variables, a representation of a joint dynamic of the set of process variables over a predefined length, and a joint configuration of an uptime/downtime of a plurality of units comprising a process flow.

Abstract: A computer-implemented method for controlling a production system includes mapping, by a controller, the production system as a directed acyclic graph. The production system can include multiple plants that are represented as nodes and relations between the plants represented by edges of the directed acyclic graph. The method further includes generating, by the controller, a regression model for each of the plants in the production system. The method further includes predicting, by the controller, an output of each plant based on sensor data associated from each plant. The method further includes adjusting, by the controller, one or more control variables for each plant based on a target output by using machine learning. The method further includes adjusting, by the controller, the one or more control variables for each plant to generate the target output.

Abstract: An apparatus and method for optimizing a process, comprising: receiving live operational data associated with a plurality of sub-processes of a process; selecting a pre-trained regression model from a plurality of pre-trained regression models for each sub-process of the plurality of sub-processes; generating a system-wide optimization model comprising a multi-period mathematical program model, including: one or more decision variables; a plurality of constraints, wherein: a first constraint of the plurality of constraints comprises one of the pre-trained regression models, and a second constraint of the plurality of constraints comprises an operational constraint; and an objective function; generating, via the optimization model, an operating mode trajectory comprising a plurality of intermediate operating modes at a plurality of intermediate times during a planning interval; and displaying a set-point trajectory recommendation in a graphical user interface based on the operating mode trajectory.

Abstract: The disclosure relates to extraction of rationales for studied outcome. A method comprises: grouping features as expert to align with a set of operating practices; generating interpretable features using operating rules, combining with statistical dependence analysis to bin selected features to generate favorite practice actions; grouping features as expert that combine a subset of the interpretable features to align with a set of operating practices.

Abstract: A method for targeting marketing for user conversion includes receiving a list of users. Data pertaining to the users is received. A conversion likelihood score representing an estimation of how likely the user would be to converted from a trial user to a paid user is determined for each user. A similarity score representing how similar the users of the pair are to one another is determined for each possible pair of users. A graph in which each node thereof represents each user and edges between the nodes have edge weights representing the determined similarity scores is constructed. Each node is associated with a value representing its conversion likelihood score. A marketing potential score is calculated for each user using both the node-associated-values and the edge weights of the graph. A set of target users having highest marketing potential scores is constructed.