Abstract: The invention provides methods, systems, and computer program products for short term probability forecasting of selected weather-related events. These embodiments are adaptable for any geographical region that can be identified and for which a reasonable number of data points exist. The inventive method uses a data set of n observations of m parameters, where the parameters may be statistically correlated. A Principal Component Analysis may be performed, with the data set as input, to provide a reduced set of principal components that are uncorrelated and account for most of the variance in the input data set. An orthogonal transformation may be performed on the reduced set of principal components to provide a rotated set of principal components that are aligned with the corresponding parameters in the input data set.