Abstract: A method and system for evaluating casualty caused by landslide chain disaster induced by heavy rain are provided. The method includes: obtaining historical landslide data, candidate influence factors and personnel traffic distribution data of an observation site; dividing the historical landslide data into a model construction sample group, a model verification sample group, and a model test sample group; obtaining an occurrence probability of landslide chain disaster of each spatial position in the observation site; determining a start-up landslide source region of the landslide chain disaster according to the model verification sample group and the occurrence probability; determining an affected region of the landslide chain disaster according to the start-up landslide source region; determining a personnel number exposed to the landslide chain disaster; and setting an event division threshold, and evaluating the number of casualties according to the event division threshold and the personnel number.

Abstract: An evaluation method for evaluating a precipitation-induced landslide disaster loss under climate change is provided. The evaluation method belongs to the technical field of geological disaster prevention and treatment. The evaluation method uses a physical process based model, in considering of spatial heterogeneity of land-surface features of grids in the area, to obtain precipitation thresholds corresponding to the respective grids in the area having the spatial heterogeneity. Historical data and climate model data are taken in combination to select suitable climate models, and the model then is used to simulate landslide prone zones and possible influence zones caused by landslides. An influence zones simulated by the evaluation method can better match disaster loss grid data, which can solve the problem that climate change scenarios and influence of landslide are difficult to be evaluated in landslide disaster evaluation.

Abstract: An evaluation method for evaluating a precipitation-induced landslide disaster loss under climate change is provided. The evaluation method belongs to the technical field of geological disaster prevention and treatment. The evaluation method uses a physical process based model, in considering of spatial heterogeneity of land-surface features of grids in the area, to obtain precipitation thresholds corresponding to the respective grids in the area having the spatial heterogeneity. Historical data and climate model data are taken in combination to select suitable climate models, and the model then is used to simulate landslide prone zones and possible influence zones caused by landslides. An influence zones simulated by the evaluation method can better match disaster loss grid data, which can solve the problem that climate change scenarios and influence of landslide are difficult to be evaluated in landslide disaster evaluation.