Abstract: A method for rapidly evaluating flood drainage effect based on machine learning and ensemble prediction is provided, including the following steps: S1, collecting and organizing feature data for predicting and evaluating the flood drainage effect; S2, constructing a flood hydrodynamic numerical model based on a physical mechanism; S3, constructing a data set, and pre-processing the data set; S4, determining a target hyperparameter combination of each of multiple machine learning regression models by using a Bayesian optimizer; S5, training multiple machine learning regression models based on multiple machine learning methods and hyperparameter optimization; S6, performing ensemble prediction on each machine learning regression model to construct a prediction and evaluation model of the flood drainage effect; and S7, using the prediction and evaluation model of the step S6 to rapidly evaluate and predict the flood drainage effect. The method improves a response speed of urban flood emergency management.

Abstract: A method for evaluating terrain uncertainty in flood warning and forecasting is provided. The method includes: S1, acquiring three types of digital elevation model (DEM) data from a shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM), an advanced spaceborne thermal emission and reflection radiometer (ASTER), and an advanced land observing satellite (ALOS); and preprocessing the three types of DEM data; S2, optimizing urban terrain characteristics; S3, constructing a multidimensional parameter space by using Latin hypercube sampling (LHS); S4, calculating flood hydrodynamics numerical value based on multidimensional sample points; and S5, constructing a global sensitivity analysis method frame suitable for urban terrain characteristics-related factors, where a Sobol quantitative method is used in the global sensitivity analysis method frame, and the Sobol quantitative method is used to evaluate uncertainties and sensitivity characteristics of multiple factors of terrain data based on a variance decomposition theory.

Abstract: A method and system for evaluating casualty caused by landslide chain disaster induced by heavy rain are provided. The method includes: obtaining historical landslide data, candidate influence factors and personnel traffic distribution data of an observation site; dividing the historical landslide data into a model construction sample group, a model verification sample group, and a model test sample group; obtaining an occurrence probability of landslide chain disaster of each spatial position in the observation site; determining a start-up landslide source region of the landslide chain disaster according to the model verification sample group and the occurrence probability; determining an affected region of the landslide chain disaster according to the start-up landslide source region; determining a personnel number exposed to the landslide chain disaster; and setting an event division threshold, and evaluating the number of casualties according to the event division threshold and the personnel number.

Abstract: An evaluation method for evaluating a precipitation-induced landslide disaster loss under climate change is provided. The evaluation method belongs to the technical field of geological disaster prevention and treatment. The evaluation method uses a physical process based model, in considering of spatial heterogeneity of land-surface features of grids in the area, to obtain precipitation thresholds corresponding to the respective grids in the area having the spatial heterogeneity. Historical data and climate model data are taken in combination to select suitable climate models, and the model then is used to simulate landslide prone zones and possible influence zones caused by landslides. An influence zones simulated by the evaluation method can better match disaster loss grid data, which can solve the problem that climate change scenarios and influence of landslide are difficult to be evaluated in landslide disaster evaluation.

Abstract: An evaluation method for evaluating a precipitation-induced landslide disaster loss under climate change is provided. The evaluation method belongs to the technical field of geological disaster prevention and treatment. The evaluation method uses a physical process based model, in considering of spatial heterogeneity of land-surface features of grids in the area, to obtain precipitation thresholds corresponding to the respective grids in the area having the spatial heterogeneity. Historical data and climate model data are taken in combination to select suitable climate models, and the model then is used to simulate landslide prone zones and possible influence zones caused by landslides. An influence zones simulated by the evaluation method can better match disaster loss grid data, which can solve the problem that climate change scenarios and influence of landslide are difficult to be evaluated in landslide disaster evaluation.