Abstract: A system for generating a retail promotion baseline receives sales data for a target product. The sales data reflects sales for the target product that occurred during a first time period and a second time period, the first time period occurring before the promotion, and the second time period occurring after the promotion. The system exponentially weights the sales data. The sales data reflect sales which occurred closer to the promotion is weighted more heavily than the sales data reflecting sales which occurred further from the promotion. The system calculates the retail promotion baseline based upon the exponentially weighted sales data. The retail promotion baseline corresponds to an amount of sales for the product absent the promotion for the product.