Abstract: According to various embodiments, a machine-learning based system for simulating tropical cyclones (TCs) and assessing TC risk is disclosed. The system includes a hierarchical Poisson genesis module configured to develop a Poisson regression and TC genesis simulation on a plurality of clustering grids. The system further includes an analog-wind track module configured to determine movement of a TC by both analog predictors formed by historical track patterns and current in situ wind. The system additionally includes a Markov intensity module configured to determine intensity change of the TC by considering three hidden discrete states of storm intensity change and associating each state with a probability distribution of intensity change.